There’s a pretty strange phenomenon—a PIPPIN average holding cost has actually been pushed up to 0.18?

It’s pretty surreal when you think about it. Compared to the last cycle, the average price has basically doubled. The most reasonable explanation is: the batch of longs at the bottom have exited, the open interest has plummeted, and what’s left are all high-entry bag holders. So the overall average price got pushed up. In this case, retail investors might already hold more positions than the whales—otherwise the numbers just don’t add up.

Looking at the data: the current open interest is over 10 million less than the peak. Did the whales really exit their longs? That’s something to ponder. Next, we have to closely watch if short positions start to rise.

Personally, I think a correction is coming. This round’s operators seem close to running out of steam, though I’m worried they might suddenly pull some liquidity-washing stunt. The price isn’t dropping yet, maybe because spot holders haven’t really started dumping—their plan might be to offload more of their chips first. Once the spot distribution is finished? That’s when the next waterfall could start.

Advice to the shorts: hold steady, especially those stuck at the bottom. Unless it breaks above 0.22, don’t exit lightly.