At the rate cut meeting on the 10th, the market was as if injected with adrenaline. But the livelier it gets, the more you need to keep your wits about you—when the party ends, who will be left to foot the bill?

Even more interesting is another storyline: the stablecoin players are quietly carving up the big U.S. Treasury pie again. Opportunities are often hidden in these unassuming corners.

🔥 Rate cut expectations are sky-high, but cracks have already appeared

How crazy is the market’s betting now? The probability of a December rate cut has shot straight past 80%. The problem is, the Fed is still debating internally—inflation data is still hanging over us, while the economy is starting to cough. In this split state, every prediction comes with a question mark.

The S&P 500 is about to crash into that 6900-point wall. Rate cut expectations have already been fully priced in; when the real shoe drops, that might be the signal for profit-takers to bail en masse.

There’s something weird too: with calls for rate cuts so loud, long-term U.S. Treasury yields are actually rising instead of falling... What exactly is the market worried about? That question is worth pondering.

💡 What to do?

Keep a close eye on the 6880-6900 range; if it can’t break through, see if 6700 can hold. After the rate cut news lands, funds might flow out of big tech stocks into small caps and value stocks for a shot at luck. Prepare your Plan B in advance, don’t wait until volatility hits to scramble.

🚀 Stablecoins: The new buyers of U.S. Treasuries

Tokenized U.S. Treasuries have already surged past $740 million, growing even faster than traditional stablecoins. Big institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are already in the game.

The U.S. “GENIUS Act” has kicked open the door to compliance—requiring 1:1 reserves of high-quality assets and clearly stating that this stuff isn’t considered a security. The Treasury Department is treating compliant stablecoins as a new weapon to expand the dollar’s influence, with an eye on future shares of the digital economy.

⚠️ But there are two sides to everything

Stablecoin issuers have indeed become new buyers of U.S. Treasuries, creating new market demand. However, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has already sounded the alarm: when funds exit, the impact on Treasuries could be even harsher than when they flow in.

So the key is to stick with transparent, compliant issuers and be wary of sudden “depegging” and systemic risks. This game is just getting started—don’t rush to go all in.