#美联储重启降息步伐 Have you noticed: recently $BTC has been behaving unusually independently, with its correlation to US stocks and global liquidity significantly weakening.

The underlying logic is actually quite straightforward, with several factors at play simultaneously:

**First, the recent surge in US stocks is entirely due to the AI boom.**
Tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft are holding up most of the market, with hot money piling into AI, leaving little for other risk assets. A rising US stock market doesn’t mean overall market liquidity is abundant, and definitely doesn’t mean crypto will follow.

**Second, M2 growth is slowing, and new liquidity is not flowing into crypto.**
Funds are being redirected to US tech stocks, government bonds, and money market funds—safer places. In this environment, it’s very difficult for BTC to rally based on liquidity alone.

**Third, Japan has started raising rates, triggering a carry trade unwind.**
This directly drains the global market, hitting high-volatility assets first, and BTC is under pressure as a result.

**Fourth, the halving cycle has been priced in early.**
The market collectively expects a “post-halving correction,” so people are exiting in advance, which in turn reinforces BTC’s independent trend.

So how can you trade to make steady profits now?

**The key point: stop using old methods to read the market.** BTC has shifted from being purely liquidity-driven to a game of structural capital flows. Tracking the main narrative is now more important than just staring at the major indices.

**Focus on two main types:** Projects in the AI chain and computing power tracks that show real incremental growth, and those that are heavily oversold but showing signs of a consensus reversal—not just blindly bottom fishing, but looking for evidence-based rebounds.

**Play the rhythm, not one-sided bets.** In the current tightening environment, choppy consolidation is the norm. Range trading, event-driven plays, and swing trading are the mainstream strategies for now.

Don’t cling to old logic. Follow the capital flow for structural opportunities, manage your trading rhythm and volatility, and when the big cyclical reversal comes, you’ll naturally catch the major gains.