#比特币对比代币化黄金 December 9 BTC Midday Observation

Several key factors are supporting the market: The Federal Reserve is meeting tonight, with a high probability of a rate cut at 89.6%. This expectation acts as a solid foundation, giving bulls confidence in the short term; institutional ETFs are continuously buying, whales are also increasing their holdings, and there is limited selling pressure in the 89,000-89,500 range, providing decent defensive capability; technically, BTC is oscillating within the 89,000-92,300 box, the 1-hour converging triangle has yet to break out, and moving averages and Fibonacci levels are holding at key positions.

How does this wave look? Neutral to slightly bullish. From 12:00 to 4:30 PM, it’s highly likely to grind within the 89,500-91,500 USD band—one-sided movement is unlikely, and we’ll still need to wait for volume confirmation to determine the direction.

Trading strategy breakdown:

Bullish approach (main direction)—For a more conservative strategy, accumulate in batches on dips between 89,500-90,000 USD, set stop-loss at 88,800, with a target of 91,000-91,500; aggressive traders can wait for a volume breakout above 92,300 USD and hold above for 5 minutes before chasing, then move the stop-loss to 91,800, aiming for 93,000.

Short opportunities (alternative)—If resistance is encountered at 91,500-92,000, you can try shorting, with stop-loss at 92,500 and a target back to 90,000-89,800; or wait for a direct breakdown below 89,500 with a weak rebound, then place stop-loss at 90,000 and look to short toward 88,500-88,000.

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