1. Bullish Camp: Stable Moat + Technical Dividend + Macro Tailwinds

Although ETH’s price has yet to take off, bulls believe its long-term value is steadily accumulating. A strong ecosystem foundation, ongoing technical upgrades, and improving macro conditions form a triple support base.

1. Ethereum remains the absolute center of infrastructure: @Matt_Hugan, CIO at Bitwise, notes that Ethereum dominates three major trends: stablecoins, tokenization, and AI agents. As long as Ethereum can improve user experience via Layer 2 without losing its institutional appeal, its outlook is optimistic. Saul Rejwan, Managing Partner at Masterkey, predicts that once regulatory easing begins, ETH will be a first beneficiary in DeFi and DePIN sectors. @BTW0205 believes that although short-term sentiment is bearish, Ethereum’s long-term ecosystem momentum and system-level advantages still position it for a potential comeback—if it can reconstruct its value narrative.

2. Ongoing technical upgrades bring structural upside: With the Prague/Electra upgrades and improvements to rollup performance, ETH is becoming faster, cheaper, and more open. Lower gas fees could attract users back and reinforce ETH’s utility. Bulls argue these upgrades are not yet priced in. @binji_x says the “Ethereum Superchain” is starting to take shape and could open up a new growth phase.

3. Signals of structural ecosystem adjustment: @feifan7686 believes that Ethereum is transitioning from a technology-driven path to one led by capital and ecosystem development. The Pectra upgrade adjusts ETH’s attributes, cross-chain testing addresses performance shortcomings, and oracle expansion aims to compete for pricing power. Behind these moves is a systematic “self-rescue” focused on capital structure and ecosystem governance. Although these changes may not immediately reflect in price, the direction is clear, and the overall stance is bullish.

4. Secondary market traders claim “ETH is undervalued”: Renowned crypto analyst @rovercrc and well-known trader, former BitMEX CEO @CryptoHayes have both published articles asserting that ETH is undervalued by the market. Hayes even predicts that ETH will surpass SOL and reach $5,000. While such views are aggressive, they reflect how mainstream traders are beginning to reassess ETH’s valuation potential.

5. Macro liquidity as the driving factor: @0xVeryBigOrange argues that regardless of Ethereum’s technical roadmap or ecosystem discussions, the core reason for ETH’s stagnant price is simple—macro liquidity has not yet been released. It’s not that ETH is weak, but rather that the broader market has yet to enter a liquidity injection phase.

6. Potential in bull market rotation: ETH’s lack of recent price action doesn’t mean it lacks opportunity—it just means the rotation hasn’t reached it yet. With rate cut expectations and ETF progress in motion, ETH has the potential to move from the sidelines back to center stage. DigitalCoinPrice estimates ETH could hit $7,000 by the end of the year in an optimistic scenario, with a long-term projection of $47,000 by 2030.

7. TVL remains No. 1, with on-chain capital still heavily allocated to ETH: Ethereum’s current total value locked (TVL) is $49.85 billion, accounting for over half of all DeFi. hile Solana and Tron have performed impressively, when it comes to “storing value on-chain,” ETH remains the most stable choice.

8. Lower inflation, better supply model than BTC: ETH’s annual issuance is just 0.5%, significantly lower than BTC’s 0.83% (BTC’s rate is 66% faster than ETH’s). This view emphasizes that Ethereum’s lower inflation rate and monetary model are more sustainable than Bitcoin’s.

9. Leading developer ecosystem: According to Electric Capital’s annual report, ETH accounts for 65% of global on-chain developer innovation, with over 6,200 monthly active developers. Layer 2 developers are growing at a rate of 67% per year. These figures show that Ethereum still holds a central position in the developer community.

10. Foundation reform boosts governance expectations: Vitalik has announced a restructuring of the Ethereum Foundation to improve decision-making efficiency and transparency. For a systemic asset like ETH, improved governance means greater long-term certainty.

In the eyes of the bulls, Ethereum is Web3’s value reservoir, laying the technological foundation for the next decade. Short-term price isn’t the priority.

2. Bearish Camp: Faith Decline + Value Capture Failure + Roadmap Controversy

The core view of the bears is: the times have changed. In terms of price performance, structural strength, efficiency, and narrative, ETH lags behind competitors. Its technical roadmap has not translated into token value, and its ecosystem faces internal division.

1. From an institutional perspective, ETH may not have bottomed out yet: @jason_chen998 believes Ethereum’s fundamentals have failed. The only bullish narrative left is ETH staking via ETF, but major institutions like BlackRock have yet to make significant moves—suggesting they may be deliberately suppressing prices to accumulate. That implies ETH may still have further downside. The overall stance is bearish.

2. The Ethereum ecosystem has lost its growth engine: @Loki_Zeng believes Ethereum’s ecosystem went completely silent in Q1 2025, with on-chain metrics dropping sharply. Traditional sectors (DeFi, L2s, NFTs) have nearly stalled, while new trending narratives (AI, Meme coins) have little to do with Ethereum. The once highly anticipated ETF staking catalyst has also proven underwhelming in practice—large capital finds its low yield and high cost hard to justify. Overall, Ethereum is seen as lacking real growth momentum, leading to a bearish outlook.

3. RWA narrative disappointment—Ethereum may not be the optimal solution:

@yuyue_chris questions Ethereum’s actual ability in the real-world asset (RWA) space.

Although ETH has long been considered a secure base layer for tokenized assets, its weak price performance and liquidation risk under proof-of-stake (PoS) are weakening that credibility. The view is that Ethereum’s capacity to support global-scale RWA is uncertain, and the importance of the RWA narrative has been overestimated—a bearish stance.

1. On-chain user growth slowing down: @wsy2021111, a researcher at @PANewsCN, noted in a December 2024 commentary that Ethereum mainnet user growth has stalled over the past year. Many new users are choosing Layer 2s or newer chains like Solana.

In his view, Ethereum is becoming a value sink for whales, while small users and emerging apps prefer chains with lower fees and faster speed. This highlights the pressure Ethereum faces in attracting new users.

1. ETH supply has turned inflationary: Due to a continued decline in network transaction fees, Ethereum’s daily burn rate has dropped to historic lows. This has caused the expected burn rate of ETH to fall sharply, leading to an annual supply increase of around 0.76%—roughly 945,000 new ETH minted per year. As of now, Ethereum’s total supply has exceeded its pre-Merge level.

2. ETH/BTC ratio hits a five-year low: On March 31, analyst James Van Straten noted that the ETH-to-BTC exchange rate fell to 0.02193, the lowest in five years. With Bitcoin’s halving rally and rotation into new Layer 1s, ETH has become “the least performing major token”—capital is steadily flowing out, and investor faith is weakening.

3. The rise of Solana and new L1s is intensifying ETH’s competition: Solana offers a lighter user experience and a livelier cultural atmosphere, attracting a large influx of new users and developers. Other chains like Base and Sui are also experiencing rapid growth.

Ethereum mainnet, by contrast, has increasingly become the territory of institutions and traditional projects, losing its appeal to younger and more innovative ventures.

1. Doubts about Ethereum’s technical roadmap—empowering or devaluing: Investor John Pfeffer argues that Ethereum’s current roadmap is beneficial to users but detrimental to the token’s value. Layer 2 scaling and the transition to Proof of Stake (PoS) reduce mainnet congestion and gas fees, which improves user experience—but also decreases the amount of ETH burned per transaction, weakening ETH’s value proposition.

2. Core apps may leave the chain: At the end of 2024, industry rumors emerged that Uniswap is planning to launch its own chain. Uniswap is Ethereum’s largest source of gas usage, accounting for over 14%. If it migrates, Ethereum could lose hundreds of millions of dollars in annual transaction fees and an important source of ETH burn, further increasing the risk of ecosystem fragmentation.

3. Ethereum Foundation accused of cashing out at the top—governance trust questioned: At the end of 2024, the Ethereum Foundation was exposed for selling at the market peak, sparking speculation of “internal bearish sentiment.” Combined with issues like low governance efficiency and slow scaling progress, this has led to declining community confidence in Ethereum’s future development.

4. Clear community disagreements over direction: Base leader Jesse Pollak and core Ethereum developer Dankrad Feist have expressed fundamentally different views on how dependent Ethereum should be on Layer 2s versus mainnet. The lack of clear direction and slow execution have become concerns. Even though Vitalik has spoken publicly, the overall strategic vision feels unclear and inconsistent.

In short, the core logic of the bearish camp is this: Ethereum is in a dilemma where technology is advancing, but price is lagging behind—while its ecosystem focus, narrative authority, and user growth are quietly slipping away.

3. So, What Judgment Should Be Made Now?

Based on the above bullish and bearish factors, we can analyze from the perspective of ETH holders’ mindset and decision-making as follows:

1. Long-term value-focused holders

If you believe ETH represents the foundational layer of the future crypto world—backed by the widest developer base, strongest DeFi ecosystem, and a continuously evolving tech roadmap—and that developers, capital, and structural narratives (like DePIN, AI Agent, RWA) have not collapsed, then it’s logical to continue holding or even gradually accumulate, waiting for the next cycle.

2. Short- to mid-term profit seekers or risk-averse holders

At this moment, moderately reducing ETH holdings may be a more suitable strategy. After all, many of the bullish catalysts are more likely to play out gradually over the medium to long term, while in the short term, ETH may continue to fluctuate or weaken. The bearish arguments—such as competitive dynamics and value capture challenges—are not problems that can be solved in just one or two quarters.

At this time, it may be worth considering reducing exposure, keeping a base position and adjusting flexibly. You can reallocate more capital once ETH’s trend becomes clearer, or engage in swing trading to improve capital efficiency. A neutral strategy could involve holding a partial core position (to avoid missing a potential breakout), while using the remaining funds for swing trades or allocating to other assets—to hedge against the opportunity cost of holding ETH.

3. Short-term performance-focused holders, or those skeptical about Ethereum’s direction

Adopting a moderately cautious approach is also a wise choice. You could consider gradually exiting most of your position during price rebounds, while continuing to monitor key indicators in the Ethereum ecosystem (such as on-chain activity). If there are clear signs of fundamental improvement in the future, or a new narrative emerges, then you can adjust your position accordingly.

Risk Disclaimer: The above is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.

Disclaimer:

1. This article is reprinted from [TechFlow]. Copyright belongs to the original author [Biteye]. If you have any objections to this reprint, please contact the Gate Learn team. The team will handle it promptly according to relevant procedures.

2. Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article represent only the author’s personal views and do not constitute any investment advice.

3. Other language versions of the article were translated by the Gate Learn team. Without mentioning Gate.io, no translated content may be copied, distributed, or plagiarized.