JPMorgan Chase Latest Report: Bitcoin Price Correction May Be Entering Final Stage

JPMorgan Chase’s latest report indicates that Bitcoin’s current price correction may be entering its final stage. As the outflow rate from spot ETF funds continues to slow, the concentrated selling pressure in the crypto market is significantly weakening, with Bitcoin price gradually stabilizing around $94,000. Analysts believe that absent new systemic shocks, investor-level selling behavior will likely end gradually in this cycle.

Institutional De-risking Process Nearing Completion

JPMorgan Chase analyst Nicholas Panigirtzoglou noted in the report that key changes since January 2026 are gradually manifesting. The fund outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs continue to narrow, reflecting that the selling pace of institutional investors is clearly slowing down.

More importantly, the futures market signals are telling. According to JPMorgan Chase’s analysis, the position data and momentum indicators of CME Bitcoin futures show that the de-risking process of institutional and leveraged funds has neared completion. This means the large-scale passive selling wave has likely already passed, and the market is entering a relatively stable phase.

Correction Stems from Structural Factors, Not Fundamental Deterioration

The real cause of this correction deserves attention. JPMorgan Chase emphasizes that the recent market decline is not due to on-chain or liquidity crises, with overall market liquidity remaining at relatively healthy levels. The core driver of this correction comes more from structural factors at the index level.

Specifically, MSCI released signals in October 2025, considering excluding certain crypto-related companies from its index adjustments. This expectation once triggered passive fund risk hedging and early position reductions, suppressing market sentiment. However, MSCI subsequently confirmed that in its February 2026 global equity index adjustments, crypto-related companies will not be excluded. This decision significantly reduced the possibility of forced selling triggered by index rebalancing.

Multiple Factors Building Support at the Bottom

Multiple factors supporting Bitcoin’s price are currently overlapping:

• ETF fund flows stabilizing, no longer showing continuous outflows
• Futures positions returning to neutral, de-risking nearing completion
• Index-level uncertainty fading, MSCI decisions providing market buffer
• Market liquidity maintaining healthy levels
• On-chain and fundamental indicators showing no deterioration signs

These factors are jointly building support for Bitcoin’s price, strengthening market confidence that “a phase-based bottom is forming.”

Subsequent Trend and Institutional Expectations

According to the latest information, institutions show some divergence in their 2026 Bitcoin expectations. JPMorgan Chase estimates a 2026 target price of $170,000, while Standard Chartered and Bernstein target $150,000, with optimists expecting $200,000-$250,000, and conservative range at $110,000-$135,000. Current Bitcoin price around $90,563 shows clear upside potential toward these targets.

From institutional behavior perspective, despite potential short-term volatility, the main risks of this correction have been gradually digested by the market. The key is whether new systemic shocks will emerge—this will be the critical factor determining whether the bottom holds firm.

Summary

JPMorgan Chase’s report conveys three core signals: First, institutional de-risking is nearing completion, with large-scale selling waves likely already past; Second, this correction stems from structural factors like index adjustments rather than fundamental deterioration, with market liquidity remaining healthy; Third, multiple supporting factors are building a phase-based bottom, but caution regarding new systemic risks remains warranted. For investors, the key is distinguishing between “technical bottom” and “true bottom”—the former may be close, but the latter requires time and further market performance to confirm.