At the start of 2026, global financial markets remain heated. However, this Friday, the market may face a real stress test — U.S. December nonfarm employment data is about to be released, and at the same time the Supreme Court is reviewing the constitutionality of certain policies.

Interestingly, despite the constant stream of recent news ranging from geopolitical developments to sector rotation, U.S. stocks and Treasuries have performed surprisingly smoothly. The chief investment officer of a major asset management firm stated candidly in an interview: "News has been bombarding us frequently, but the market remains calm and peaceful, which is indeed somewhat unusual."

However, this tranquility will be disrupted soon. Market strategists point out that options traders have prepared for what could be the most volatile trading day of the year. Based on the implied volatility prices of options expiring on Friday, the S&P 500 could fluctuate by ±0.9% in a single day.

Signs can also be seen from the turbulence in the options market. Although the S&P 500 is still reaching new highs, Wall Street's fear index (VIX) has been climbing slowly since 2026, reporting 15.5 on Thursday. However, some analysts question whether investors' vigilance is sufficient, arguing that the performance of the options market is actually still relatively moderate.