Probability's essence is far more than simple calculations of dice rolls, even when involving more complex variable combinations. True probabilistic thinking is about acknowledging the limitations of our knowledge, then building a systematic approach to deal with uncertainty based on this humility. This is especially important for participants in the crypto market—market volatility, black swan events, policy shifts—these are all unpredictable. The key to mastering probabilistic thinking is not about prediction accuracy, but about how to make reasonable decisions within a limited knowledge framework, and how to design your investment portfolio to hedge against risks that we cannot even imagine. That is why risk management skills often determine long-term returns more than precise market timing.