Introduction

Did you know that Bitcoin was once valued at $0.048? Right! That was well before any crypto bull run ever happened. This implies that if you had bought $1 worth of BTC in 2010 without selling, your $1 investment would be worth $1.7 million today! But let me guess—you probably did not buy Bitcoin in 2010.

But did you also know that a bulk of Bitcoin’s positive price movement happens during a crypto bull run? So what is a crypto bull run, and how does the crypto bull run in 2020/2021 compare to that of 2024/2025?

What is a Crypto Bull Run?

A crypto bull run is a period of significant price appreciation in a cryptocurrency’s cycle. This massive price appreciation often spreads across most cryptocurrencies but is most noticeable in Bitcoin, the largest crypto asset by market capitalization.

Historically, most crypto bull cycles kick off months after Bitcoin halving, that is, when Bitcoin’s mining rewards are slashed by half. The theoretical correlation between Bitcoin halving and the birth of a bull run syncs with the economic principle of demand and supply.

As an asset’s supply reduces, its price could increase as a result of expected scarcity. Multiple bull cycles have birthed an explosive appreciation in Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin’s Historical Price Trajectory

Source: TradingView

• The 2013 Bull Cycle: The first noticeable crypto bull cycle occurred in 2013, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising from about $145 in May to over $1200 in December.
• The 2017 Bull Cycle: The next bullish surge was in 2017, and BTC surged by almost 2000%. Bitcoin’s opening price in January was slightly below $1000, while BTC reached $20,000 in December.
• The 2020/21 Bull Cycle: In 2020/2021, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies also experienced sporadic growth. Bitcoin crashed to as low as $3,700 in March 2020 but eventually closed the year trading close to $29,000 in December. Further, in 2021, Bitcoin reached a high of $69,000 in November 2021.
• The 2024/25 Bull Cycle: The 2024/25 cycle is far from over, but Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have formed a price trajectory similar to those experienced in other bull cycles. Bitcoin started trading at around $42,000 in January 2024. Interestingly, in December 2024, Bitcoin finally broke the $100,000 mark. As of March 2025, Bitcoin ranges between $75,000 and $90,000.

The Crypto Bull Run 2020/2021

Some market factors that contributed to the growth of the cryptocurrency market in 2020 and 2021 include the halving of Bitcoin, Elon Musk’s crypto advocacy, and retail investors’ peaked interest in memecoins, the metaverse, and play-to-earn tokens.

Bitcoin Halving

The 2020 Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11th. In the months that followed, Bitcoin’s price surged significantly. Bitcoin rose by about 12% the week after its halving, and the flagship currency recorded a value appreciation of over 650% one year after the halving event.

The halving of Bitcoin reduced its mining rate, making miners extract half the quantity of BTC they once got from mining. For miners to maintain their profit margin, Bitcoin’s price has to appreciate by at least 2x. Hence, halving is always seen as a trigger for price appreciation.

The halving also had a positive ripple effect on other cryptocurrencies. Altcoins like Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, and Litecoin surged in value months after Bitcoin’s halving. Notably, though, XRP’s price struggled in 2020 due to the SEC lawsuit against Ripple. Overall, the general cryptocurrency market experienced a massive surge in value and capitalization.

Elon Musk’s Crypto Saga

On January 29, 2021, the crypto ecosystem went ecstatic when Elon Musk, the world’s richest man at the time, updated his X (formerly Twitter) bio. He simply used the word “Bitcoin” along with its symbol on his bio and tweeted a cryptic message: “In retrospect, it was inevitable.”

Following his tweet, Bitcoin’s price surged by 20%. A few weeks later, Musk announced that his company Tesla would begin to accept Bitcoin payments, and all BTC received by Tesla would not be converted to USD. Musk’s open support for Bitcoin attracted more retail and institutional investors to the crypto ecosystem.

Interestingly, Bitcoin adoption was only the beginning of Elon Musk’s crypto escapades in 2021. The American billionaire also added Dogecoin to his bio, posted numerous dog memes, and openly expressed his support for the memecoin. Although Dogecoin has existed since 2013 and has primarily been seen as a coin with no fundamental value, given its creation circumstances, Musk’s support for DOGE changed this stigma in no time.

Dogecoin recorded an 800% gain a few days after Elon Musk’s first notable tweet about Doge. This explosive surge had a positive impact on other dog-themed coins. Shiba Inu was the first to follow the Doge trend in price appreciation, and shortly after, multiple doge-themed memecoins were launched.

The 2021 MemeCoin Frenzy

While Dogecoin took the lead in the memecoin frenzy, multiple other memecoins attracted retail investors and cruisers to the crypto ecosystem. Newbie investors were pushed by the fear of missing out (FOMO), and coin creators capitalized on this fear. New coins like Safemoon, Safestar, PIG, and Freedom coin caught the eyes of noobs.

New investors were drawn to these meme coins due to their low market cap, low value, and the potential for high returns. Further, most of these projects were accompanied by hype from crypto influencers. In March and April 2021, most of these newly launched memecoins saw gains of above 1000%. However, these gains were short-lived as they were birthed from the euphoria of the temporary memecoin craze.

Play-to-Earn Coins and Metaverse Projects

Play-to-earn cryptocurrencies and metaverse projects brought a “unique flavor” to the crypto market in 2021. The idea of playing to earn crypto tokens that could be converted to real money was welcomed with ecstasy in the crypto ecosystem.

The Axie Infinity game was the leading P2E crypto project in 2021. Players had to battle monsters or other players to earn the SLP token which could then be converted to cash. This attracted multiple gamers to the crypto ecosystem.

Metaverse projects had a different model. They incentivized users to develop digital real estate. These digital versions of real estate could then appreciate in value or be resold to other users.

Both play-to-earn games and metaverse projects like Decentraland and Sandbox unlocked a new way to earn in the blockchain space. Although these projects gained unprecedented traction, both models were eventually unsustainable.

The Rise of “Ethereum Killers”

2021 was the year for “Ethereum killers.” Ethereum had always been the leading altcoin, but it seemed like Ether would be overthrown in the 2020/21 bull cycle. Relatively newer cryptocurrencies like Luna, Solana, and Avalanche quickly gained more traction.

The rise in the adoption of these crypto projects was primarily due to the increased network congestion on the Ethereum network. Gas fees on the Ethereum network averaged $50 in 2021. On the other hand, gas fees on the Solana, Luna, and Avalanche networks were well below $0.1 on average.

Ethereum users expected the Ethereum merge (which enabled the transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake) to contribute to Ether gas fee reduction. However, at the time, Ether holders were still in the dark regarding a specific date for the merge. Eventually, the Ethereum merge took place in September 2022, but Ethereum killers had already stolen a portion of the DeFi limelight in 2021.

Lots of developers and end users flocked to the Solana, Luna, and Avalanche ecosystems, which brought in “new money” or investment into the altcoin market in 2021. “Ethereum Killer” projects particularly boomed between September and November 2021, with most coins reaching their all-time high.

The End of the 2020/21 Bull Cycle

Source: TradingView

Like every bull cycle, the 2020/21 cycle did not last forever. The prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies took a downward spiral towards the end of 2021. In December 2021, Bitcoin’s price tanked by 20%. At first, that seemed like a regular pull-back. Time eventually revealed that it was just the beginning of a cataclysmic downtrend.

In 2022, the crypto ecosystem welcomed more woes. Bitcoin had an opening price of $46,300 but ended up closing the year around $16,500. Several factors contributed to this downward spiral. For one, many cryptocurrencies were already overpriced at the end of 2021.

Also, a series of negativities contributed to the decline in the value of Bitcoin and altcoins. For example, the Luna and UST debacle injected an unhealthy level of fear into the crypto ecosystem. Further, the crash of FTX, one of the largest crypto exchanges at the time, dealt the final blow to FTT’s price and, by extension, Solana’s price. This also had a domino effect on other cryptocurrencies, as retail and institutional traders massively sold off the bulk of their crypto assets. It wasn’t until 2023 that the crypto market gradually showed signs of recovery.

The Crypto Bull Run 2024/25

Source: TradingView

Some significant events that have taken place during the 2024/25 bull market include the approval of spot BTC and ETH ETFs by the US SEC, Bitcoin’s fourth having, the rise of AI agents, and the U.S. President’s support for cryptocurrencies.

The Approval of Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs

On the 10th of January, 2024, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission announced that it had approved the issuing of spot Bitcoin ETFs. This marked a major milestone in the history of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin’s price did not appreciate significantly following the ETF approval, crypto advocates accepted this approval as the start of positives in the crypto ecosystem in 2024.

In May 2024, just a few months after the approval of spot BTC ETFs, the U.S. SEC again approved spot Ether ETFs. The approval of Bitcoin and Ether ETFs solidified the status of both cryptocurrencies as leading digital assets globally, especially for retail and institutional investors in the United States.

Bitcoin’s Fourth Halving

Bitcoin’s fourth halving occurred on April 20, 2024. This recent halving reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC per block. Crypto holders expected historical patterns to repeat. Interestingly, about eight months after Bitcoin’s fourth halving, the flagship currency reached the $100,000 mark, a milestone that has long been expected. Bitcoin’s next halving will take place in 2028.

The SEC Continues to Lose Its Crypto Battles

The U.S. SEC has established a reputation as one of the leading antagonists of cryptocurrencies in the last few years. In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple for raising $1.3 billion through an unregistered securities offering. The battle between the SEC and Ripple, which went on for years, put the US organization in the limelight. However, in 2023, the Securities and Exchange Commission lost its lawsuit to Ripple.

Going forward, the SEC probed Yuga Labs, the company behind the BAYC NFT collection, and opened a lawsuit against Coinbase and Kraken. Coinbase and Kraken were accused of illegally operating an exchange and selling unregistered securities.

In March 2025, the SEC dropped its charges against both crypto exchanges. This recent set of decisions made by the SEC suggests a potential regulatory shift in its perception of cryptocurrencies and crypto organizations.

The Launch of AI Tokens and AI Agents

According to data from Coinmarketcap, over 400 cryptocurrencies are directly or indirectly linked to artificial intelligence. AI tokens have existed for a few years now, but it was until 2024 the first set of crypto AI agents were launched.

AI Agents have unique traits that distinguish them from regular artificial intelligence tools. They can autonomously perform tasks on behalf of a user or another system. For example, “Dolos the Buly” is an AI agent that scans for mentions on X (formerly Twitter) and sarcastically or humorously responds to threads to maximize engagement.

Several innovators have capitalized on blockchain technology to create AI agents and an accompanying token. Although still in its infancy, this innovation has gained traction. The market capitalization of AI tokens reached $70 billion in June 2024.

The US President’s Support for Cryptocurrencies

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the US election last year, cryptocurrency advocates hoped for a favorable year. In his 2024 campaigns, Trump tactfully stated that his administration would support the crypto evolution.

The Trump token (TRUMP) was launched in January 2025. The developers promoted TRUMP as a crypto asset, celebrating the U.S. president. The TRUMP token outperformed virtually all cryptocurrencies that week. Within 24 hours, TRUMP surged from as low as $6.2 to $75.3. Undoubtedly, investors and cruisers raked in huge profits from the new coin.

The U.S. President’s support for cryptocurrencies has not dwindled. On March 7th, 2025, Donald Trump signed an executive order for the States to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. While this move has not positively impacted BTC’s price, crypto investors are more confident in utilizing and investing in Bitcoin than they were a few years ago.

Comparing Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory in 2020/21 and 2024/25

Source: Bitbo.io

Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the 2020/2021 bull run is similar to the 2024/25 cycle. Firstly, BTC’s price did not surge exponentially immediately after its halving. The 2020 halving was on the 11th day of May, but it was not until November 2020 that the leading cryptocurrency broke out from its price range. BTC was valued at around $13,700 at the start of November 2020 but closed the month around $18,900 recording a 37.9% increase that month. Bitcoin closed the year trading at around $29,000.

In 2024, the Bitcoin halving took place on April 19. However, it was not until November 2024 that BTC’s price ramped. Like the previous halving year, BTC appreciated by 37% in November 2024.

Secondly, significant price corrections occurred during the 2020/21 and 2024/25 bull cycles. For example, between April and July 2021, Bitcoin’s value crashed by over 50%. Eventually, the cryptocurrency recovered and created an all-time high in November 2021. Likewise, the 2024/25 bull run has been accompanied by a significant pullback. A 30% price crash is evident when we compare BTC’s high in December 2024 with BTC’s low in March 2025.

The huge price corrections experienced in both cycles reveal that pull-backs are typical even in a bullish market.

Comparing the Performance of Altcoins in 2020/21 and 2024/25

Source: Blockchain Center

While Bitcoin reached new all-time highs in 2020/21 and 2024/25, the story has been quite different for many altcoins. Only a few of the top fifty cryptocurrencies, like Solana (SOL) and the Gate token (GT), have created new all-time highs in the 2024/25 cycle. Solana created a new all-time high on the 19th of January 2025. This new ATH was aided by the hype around the TRUMP coin, which was launched on the Solana network. On the other hand, the Gate token has steadily shown bullish strength in 2024 and 2025, despite recent market uncertainties.

Ethereum traded above $4,000 in December 2024, but currently trades around $1,800 as of 30th March 2025. This puts ETH 62% below its all-time high in November 2021. Other altcoins like Dogecoin, Cardano, and Avalanche are 77%, 78%, and 86% below their ATHs, respectively.

Further, the altcoin season index, which measures the performance of the top 50 altcoins against Bitcoin, is currently at 22%. The index rose above 75% only in the first week of December 2024, and this surge was short-lived.

Alternatively, data from the index reveals the strength of altcoins in the previous bull run. Between August and September 2020, over 75% of altcoins outperformed Bitcoin.

Also, the altcoins strengthened between March and June 2021, as the index maintained a value above 75% during the 3 months. In summary, altcoins performed better in 2020/2021 than in 2024/2025.

Technical Analysis: Where is Bitcoin’s Price Headed?

Source: TradingView

The image above shows the chart of BTC against USDT on the daily timeframe. Bitcoin’s price has formed the double top, a famous bearish chart pattern. BTC has also broken the neckline, and the crypto asset seems to be heading towards its next demand zone. This falls just below the $70,000 mark. A good buy volume from this region could trigger a trend reversal and ignite the bulls again.

It is worth noting that many fundamental and technical factors can affect the price of an asset. The analysis above is just a projection of where Bitcoin’s price could be headed based on the current chart pattern, and it should not be treated as financial advice.