Behind the big dump of EIGEN: In addition to the overall market crash, there is also a massive token unlocking wave.

Author: Cryptor

Compiled by: ShenChao TechFlow

On October 10th, the entire crypto market plummeted due to tariff news, with $EIGEN experiencing a drop of up to 53% within the day, falling from $1.82 to $0.86. At first glance, this seems to be just another victim of a market flash crash, but the reality is far more complex.

In the past 30 days, 68% of the $EIGEN most profitable traders have exited the market. They are not panic selling due to the tariff crash on October 10, but rather positioning themselves in advance to avoid the upcoming 24-month supply shock - the first unlocking of which occurred on October 1.

I specifically checked the on-chain data because my timeline is filled with overly optimistic headlines, and these narratives are not consistent with the price trends.

In fact, EigenCloud is experiencing strong growth: a partnership with Google has been established, the Total Value Locked (TVL) has increased from $12 billion in August to $17.5 billion, the Coinbase AgentKit integration has been launched, and EigenDA V2 and multi-chain expansion are also actively under development.

But the problem is that starting from November 1, there will be approximately $47 million worth of $EIGEN tokens unlocked and flowing into the market every month over the next two years. In other words, this amounts to 13% of the current market value entering circulation every 30 days.

The most profitable traders have long seen this and exited the market early. Looking back at the data from the past 30 days, we can see that smart money bought some low-level chips after the flash crash, but it was mainly driven by one whale investor, who, according to data from @nansen_ai, has remained silent for now. Meanwhile, about 12.2 million dollars flowed into the exchanges last week.

The market crash on October 10th is just noise and interference. The real signal lies in timing: who exited before October 1st, who bought during the flash crash, and who is staying silent now.

Exit Mode: September to October 2025

First and foremost: in the past 30 days, 68% of the top 25 traders who made the most profit with $EIGEN have completely liquidated their positions. They did not partially take profits, but exited entirely.

The best-performing trader “crashman.eth” achieved a 272% return on investment (ROI) and no longer holds any tokens. The second place exited after a 97% return, and the third place left after a 91% return. This pattern continues to repeat in the leaderboard.

Nansen ??? and Ricardo

Only 8 out of the 25 top traders still hold $EIGEN, and their average “holding ratio” is only 30%. Even these traders who are still holding have reduced their peak positions by 70%.

This data is more meaningful than the return on investment. High returns accompanied by low holding ratios indicate that early confidence is gradually turning into caution. These exits began in mid-September, several weeks before the market crash on October 10, when the price was still above $2.

These traders clearly saw the unlocking plan and withdrew in advance.

The flow of the token ###

The timeline coincides with the first unlocking event on October 1, when $EIGEN became tradable after months of restrictions. Two days before the first batch of 36.82 million $EIGEN was unlocked, the price had already plummeted by 26%.

Nansen ??? and Ricardo

Top traders took action before this event, selling tokens into the exchange. On the surface, it seems like the market is accumulating chips, but in reality, this is a systematic distribution. At least from on-chain data, I think this is a reasonable interpretation.

The fund flow data from the past 7 days shows that approximately $12.32 million worth of $EIGEN has flowed into the exchange, including $3.44 million from these top profit traders.

Contradiction: A smart money whale buys the dip

The holdings of smart money grew by 68% last month, increasing from 1.4 million to 2.36 million coins. However, the turning point is that more than half of the increase came from a single wallet, which currently holds 1.23 million $EIGEN.

This whale continued to buy in September, sold near the low point unlocked on October 1, then bought back at a higher price, and increased its position again after the market flash crash on October 10.

Although this staggered buying model seems a bit strange, more importantly, it does not reflect a widespread consensus among smart money. The total holdings of the remaining smart money are distributed across dozens of wallets, totaling approximately 1.2 million $EIGEN, which is not convincing to me. The total supply held by smart money accounts for only 0.13%.

Nansen ??? and Ricardo

Moreover, there has been no activity from Smart Money in the past 24 hours, nor any significant inflow of funds. Even that whale has remained silent.

At the same time, as more top PnL wallets take profits and transfer tokens to exchanges, the price of $EIGEN continues to decline. This trend can be seen in the column on the right side of the screenshot above.

There are two interpretations for this silence:

• Bullish outlook: Confidence. Choose to hold, ride through the volatility, and wait for the fundamentals to catch up.
• Bearish outlook: Uncertainty. Even with lower prices, there is not enough confidence to continue adding positions.

On November 1st, we will see the results.

the $47 million monthly dilemma

Because on November 1st, the next challenge is coming: more unlocks.

The unlocking plan is public information, and it is not a secret. However, it seems that few people actually pay attention to its real meaning or understand it in a meaningful context.

The unlocking on October 1, 2024, lifted the transfer restrictions and initiated a one-year lock-up cliff period.

On October 1, 2025, the first batch of 36.82 million coins $EIGEN will be unlocked. Starting from November 1, 2025, 36.82 million coins will be unlocked each month for approximately 23 months, until September 2027.

Based on the current price, tokens worth $47 million enter the circulating market every 30 days. At the current market capitalization (which is $490 million at the time of writing), these monthly unlocked tokens represent an approximate dilution rate of about 10%. This is a significant pressure.

Nansen ??? and Ricardo

Currently, only 23% of the tokens are in circulation, and the ratio of fully diluted valuation (FDV) to market cap is 4.5 times, which means 77% of the tokens are still locked.

The top ten token holding addresses control 50% of the token supply. Most of these are stored in protocol wallets, exchange reserves, and venture capital allocations, all of which are subject to the same unlocking schedule.

This means that there will be ongoing selling pressure over the next two years, rather than a one-time event.

Those who exited in September did not do so because of any price movement, but rather to preemptively respond to the known supply shock on a specific date.

Agreements and Tokens: Why Both May Be Established

Ironically, EigenCloud, as a protocol, actually performs well.

The total value locked (TVL) reached $17.5 billion (about $12 billion in August). Collaboration with Google Cloud for AI payment verification. Coinbase AgentKit integration supports verifiable blockchain agents. The slashing mechanism went live in April. EigenDA V2 was launched in July. Multi-chain scaling is also actively underway.

Development is real, adoption rates are increasing, and the logic of the infrastructure is being realized.

However, strong fundamentals do not eliminate poor token economics. These are two independent issues. Although the tokens belong to a certain project, this does not mean that the two will develop in sync.

The growth story of $EIGEN is colliding with a heavy, multi-year unlocking period, which has not yet fully begun. This is why I always separate product analysis from token analysis, as they rarely sync up, especially during the vesting period.

The success of the token requires the protocol to generate sufficient real demand, absorbing $47 million of new supply each month.

Even for projects with real appeal and scale like EigenCloud, this is a very high threshold.

November 1: The Real Stress Test

I don't know who will win in this contest: the growth of agreements or the pressure of supply.

But what I know is that the data has told us some facts. Once again, my timeline is filled with (the only) bullish news about $EIGEN . Does this situation seem familiar to us? Those who follow me should know which cases I am referring to.

For $EIGEN, profitable traders had already exited a few weeks before the first unlock, with the most successful ones leaving while the price was still above $2 . A smart money whale bought heavily during the crash but then completely fell silent. The inflow of funds to the exchange continued to rise before the next unlock window arrived.

The market crash driven by tariffs on October 10 attracted everyone's attention, but the real story revolves around the wallet layout of the 24-month unlocking plan, which will officially accelerate on November 1.

Insights from Pattern Recognition:

When the “Still Holding %” of top performers falls below 30%, when the inflow to the exchange surges relative to market capitalization, and when major periodic unlocks are approaching, this is usually not your entry signal.

November 1st is the next monthly test of this supply cycle. We will see whether the confidence of the whales pays off or if the early sellers were correct in their judgment.

Pay attention to these indicators:

1. Changes in the positions of smart money, and whether there are more wallets increasing their holdings.
2. Are other groups (such as the top 100 holders, top profit accounts, whales, and funds) increasing their holdings?
3. Exchange Traffic Speed (Will the inflow speed of 12 million USD per week accelerate?)
4. Active wallet count (Are there new participants entering, or are only existing holders rotating?)

This framework is applicable to any token with a unlocking plan. The methodology here is more important than a single transaction.

On-chain data provides you with the same information that institutions and funds have. The difference is whether you know where to look before the market discovers it.

If you did it? Then you have surpassed 99% of crypto Twitter users.