Pavel's humanity, and Ton's challenge

I really like Pavel’s mention of not using a phone. Essentially, this is a form of “information fasting” in response to the current challenge of information overload, paralleling the popular “food fasting”—one is metaphysical, the other physical. But ultimately, body and mind are integrated, and both influence hormones like cortisol. Now and in the future, attention is the most scarce resource. Being able to freely step away from electronic devices is a luxury—a thresholded freedom.

Pavel is also an extreme craftsman. The advantage of a craftsman is that they can lead a small team to create a killer app. However, the limitation is that Telegram, as the largest instant messaging platform outside of China and the US, cannot become another Tencent-scale platform. The same cultural influences have also impacted its Web 3 project, TON. By the way, as the first Chinese institution to invest in TON, I’ve observed it closely over the past four years.

1. The technical roadmap missed the right point on the technology tree. TON has stubbornly insisted on using C++, which appears to be a pure technical idealism. Historically, Russians have often chosen the wrong direction on the “data technology tree”: the Soviet Union, during the transistor revolution, didn’t pivot and instead obsessed over electronic tube performance optimization, missing the entire chip wave. They tend to emphasize performance and control excessively while neglecting ecology and developer experience. TON’s SDK, toolchain, and documentation ecosystem lack standardization, making development too difficult. This isn’t a syntax issue but a lack of platform thinking.

2. The ecosystem is unbalanced. Currently, only Russians and Chinese are actively involved, but resource allocation clearly favors the Russian-speaking community. This is a well-known issue.

3. Oligopoly dominance. Funding, traffic, and narrative resources in the ecosystem are concentrated among a few “TOP” companies/projects. Everyone knows they need to flatter the “TOP” teams, but mid-tier projects are severely squeezed. The foundation and the oligopoly “TOP” companies are also engaged in long-term power struggles, with internal conflicts ongoing.

4. Self-acceptance. It’s crucial for individuals and organizations to accept themselves and reconcile with who they are. Only on this basis can you face yourself honestly and leverage your strengths while avoiding your weaknesses. However, TON seems eager to pitch to Musk, persuade American investors, and go to the White House. The reality is that, no matter how much effort is made, in others’ eyes, TON remains a Russian-background public chain. In contrast, BNB did not try to play the “American” role but instead focused on creating the chain that East Asia enjoys the most, making Westerners feel FOMO, and then gradually internationalizing—this approach has been very effective.

5. The story of “1 billion user adoption” has been told for four years and remains just a story. Pavel keeps talking about a grand vision of “connecting Telegram’s billion users with the blockchain world,” but this has yet to truly materialize. The reason isn’t false vision but structural constraints: Telegram, to survive and ensure Pavel’s personal safety (he has become increasingly paranoid about his physical safety in recent years, especially after several incidents, including the recent French event), must maintain a “superficial” separation from TON to avoid regulatory red lines. This disconnection prevents TON from fully integrating Telegram’s ecosystem. Even stablecoins like USDE have issuance volumes stuck at a few hundred million, indicating that the story is big but the realization is small.

TON embodies the perfectionism of engineering geeks but lacks the warmth of ecological collaboration; it has a large entry point but is hindered by regulatory realities; it has its advantages but has not reconciled with itself. It has narrative and ideals but still needs to transform these into sustainable systems and incentives.

Wishing the TON ecosystem continues to thrive.