Economists survey: Consensus has formed on the Fed lowering interest rates next week, but there is significant divergence in the path for rate cuts next year.

On October 22, a Reuters survey of economists showed that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week and again in December; however, there remains significant disagreement among surveyed economists regarding the interest rate level at the end of next year. Among the 117 economists surveyed, 115 predicted that the Fed would cut rates by another 25 basis points on October 29, bringing the rate down to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with only 2 predicting a 25 basis point cut in October and a 50 basis point cut in December. The proportion of economists supporting another rate cut in December has decreased to 71%. This survey was conducted from October 15 to 21. Regarding the interest rate level at the end of next year, economists provided seven different forecasts, ranging from 2.25% - 2.50% to 3.75% - 4.00%. Part of the increasing uncertainty is due to market speculation about who will succeed Powell as Fed chairman after his term ends in May next year. (Jin10)