No Plan. No Position.

#FirstTradeOfTheWeek · #GateSquare · March 11, 2026
US CPI was released on Tuesday.
The market was waiting. Everyone was waiting. But there is always a difference between those who wait and those who are ready.
Those who wait stare at the screen trying to understand what happened.
Those who are ready execute their plan.
This week that difference was more visible than ever.
This Week's Table
BTC at $70,741. Hit an intraday high of $71,317, bounced from $68,978. +1.01% in 24 hours. Weekly -0.20% — tight band. 30-day +2.77% — medium-term recovery building. But 90-day -21.63% — structural pressure still active. Market cap $1.41 trillion.
ETH at $2,078. Intraday high $2,085, low $2,007. +1.82% in 24 hours — relatively stronger than BTC today. Weekly +0.29% — turned positive. 30-day +2.78%. But 90-day -32.61% — deeper wound than BTC.
Both assets recovering in the short term. But looking at the 90-day picture — neither has confirmed structural improvement yet.
90-Day Wound. Short-Term Recovery. Both True Simultaneously.
BTC -21.63% over 90 days. ETH -32.61% over 90 days.
But in the last 30 days both posted +2.77% and +2.78%.
What does this picture mean?
Structural pressure continues — but dip buying has begun. Institutional accumulation happened inside the 90-day decline. MicroStrategy at 738,731 BTC. BitMine reached 4.5 million ETH. ETF inflows turned positive.
While the crowd was selling — institutions were buying. Now the crowd is starting to return.
Those who recognized this cycle won. Every time.
This Week's Three Questions
Question 1: Will BTC break above the $71,317 intraday high?
Daily close above $71,317 — $72,000 resistance comes into play. If it can't break — $68,978 support gets retested.
Question 2: Has ETH started closing the gap with BTC?
Today ETH +1.82%, BTC +1.01%. ETH weekly turned positive at +0.29%. This gap closing signals the beginning of Altcoin Season. If it doesn't sustain — selective rotation continues.
Question 3: What does the geopolitical picture bring this week?
Trump said "very soon." Iran hasn't stepped back yet. Oil in the $90-95 band. Every new development creates instant volatility. If Hormuz resolution arrives — war premium evaporates, risk appetite returns.
This Week's Scenarios
Bull: BTC closes above $71,317 on confirmation → $72,000 test → ETH approaches $2,100 resistance → altcoin warming begins.
Position: Hold above $71,000 → gradual entry. Target $72,000. Stop below $69,500.
Bear: $71,317 resistance holds → BTC retests $68,978 support → if broken, $67,000 band comes into play → ETH risks falling below $2,007.
Position: Wait for breakdown confirmation → reduce exposure. Stop above $71,500.
Neutral: $69,000-$71,500 range consolidation continues → low volume → direction pending.
Position: Range trade. Stay away from heavy leverage.
This Week's Watch List
📌 Thursday — Core PCE (12:30 UTC)
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Will the trace of the oil shock show up here?
📌 BTC $71,317 level
Intraday high. Daily close above this — direction is up. Below — range continues.
📌 ETH $2,007 level
Intraday low. Holding this support is critical. If broken — $1,950 comes into play.
📌 Hormuz updates
Hourly monitoring. Every headline creates instant movement.
📌 ETF flows
Is institutional buying continuing?
📊 March 11, 2026 · Live Data
BTC: $70,741 · 24h: +1.01%
BTC Intraday: $68,978 — $71,317
BTC Weekly: -0.20% · 30-day: +2.77% · 90-day: -21.63%
ETH: $2,078 · 24h: +1.82%
ETH Intraday: $2,007 — $2,085
ETH Weekly: +0.29% · 30-day: +2.78% · 90-day: -32.61%
BTC Market Cap: $1.41 Trillion
ETH Market Cap: $250 Billion
BTC Resistance: $71,317 → $72,000
BTC Support: $68,978 → $67,000
ETH Resistance: $2,085 → $2,100
ETH Support: $2,007 → $1,950
#FirstTradeOfTheWeek #GateSquare