$1.75 trillion, SpaceX is set to conduct the most expensive IPO in human history.

Source: Geek Park

Byline: Hualin Wuwang

In 1602, the Dutch East India Company issued the first stock in human history in Amsterdam. At the time, nobody knew what that meant—only that a company wanted to use “the money of the whole world” to conquer “the trade of the whole world.”

Four hundred years later, today, a company called SpaceX quietly filed a document with the SEC, trying to package the entire space era for you using the same logic.

The difference is that the Dutch East India Company’s valuation converted to today is about $8 trillion, while SpaceX “only”:

$1.75 trillion.

According to a report by Bloomberg, SpaceX has already secretly submitted an IPO registration draft to the SEC on April 1. It plans to complete the listing as soon as this June. Code-named “Project Apex,” it will involve at least 21 banks as underwriters. The target fundraise is as high as $75 billion—more than three times the largest IPO in U.S. history.

What does $75 billion mean? When Saudi Aramco went public in 2019, it raised about $25.6 billion, which was already an unshakable record of that era. SpaceX directly multiplies that figure by three, then tells you, “This is only the beginning.”

A valuation of $1.75 trillion is even more hair-raising.

Motley Fool analyst calculated the numbers: this corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 113 times SpaceX’s 2025 sales. For comparison, the similarly hyped AST SpaceMobile trades at a P/S of 142 times, and Rocket Lab at 44 times. SpaceX’s multiple sits between the two—but its scale is still several orders of magnitude larger than the sum of the two.

To support this number, Musk needs people to believe that several things come true at the same time:

Starlink continues to dominate the global satellite internet;

Starship completely rewrites the cost of space transportation;

The “orbital data center” turns from a concept into reality;

and Musk himself—without pulling any nonsense. That may be harder than making the first three happen.

This isn’t about buying a company. It’s about betting on the future in a parallel universe.

01 Starlink + xAI: Musk’s “merger magic”

Before thoroughly criticizing this valuation, let’s first talk about what SpaceX actually has.

Starlink is the most solid foundation for this valuation. In February 2026, the number of Starlink users officially surpassed 10 million. The company expects full-year revenue of $2.4 billion this year. A satellite internet business that can generate cash flow steadily is, by itself, worth a substantial premium.

But the more critical variable happened in February this year, when an internal reorganization codenamed “K2” was completed. Musk’s AI company, xAI, merged with SpaceX. The Grok large language model was directly integrated into SpaceX’s operating architecture, together with the Starlink satellite network, forming a system that analysts call an “orbital data center.”

That means SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company or a satellite company—it’s packaging itself as a:

“space AI infrastructure company.”

The value of this narrative is enormous. In 2025, AI infrastructure is the track that the capital markets are most willing to pay premiums for. When Starlink’s physical nodes combine with Grok’s computing capabilities, SpaceX suddenly has an imagination space that can be compared with all the major cloud computing giants.

At the time the merger was completed, SpaceX’s valuation was $1.25 trillion. Just a few months later, the IPO valuation jumped to $1.75 trillion. This $500 billion incremental amount, to a large extent, is the premium from the AI narrative.

02 Why rush the IPO?

SpaceX has long maintained a curious restraint about going public. Musk has repeatedly said publicly that an IPO brings pressure from short-term thinking, which is not conducive to the company’s long-term development. This logic makes complete sense during the money-burning exploration phase.

But now it’s different.

In mid-March, SpaceX completed a key technical milestone: two Starship vehicles in low Earth orbit successfully completed an on-orbit propellant transfer demonstration. One was a tanker variant, and the other a logistics variant. In space, they docked and transferred several tons of cryogenic liquid oxygen.

The significance of this test is that it is the final crucial piece of the puzzle needed for NASA’s Artemis III lunar landing mission. This means SpaceX is shifting from a “commercial satellite launch company” to a “national space strategy contractor,” and this identity is worth a different valuation logic in the capital markets.

With technological breakthroughs, AI business integration, and Starlink cash flow maturing—all three main lines taking shape at the same time, this is the “best time window” for SpaceX to list. Musk clearly sees it too.

There’s also a more realistic pressure.

The IPO window for AI unicorns is getting narrower. OpenAI and Anthropic are both planning IPOs. If these two go first, market enthusiasm for AI companies could be diluted. SpaceX’s logic is that it must enter at the peak—and the “peak” may be in the first half of 2026.

On March 31, Musk also personally went on X to debunk rumors, saying that retail brokerages such as Robinhood and SoFi would not be excluded from the IPO. A 30% allocation for retail investors—far higher than the 5% to 10% typical of traditional IPOs—suggests SpaceX wants to turn this listing into a “space dream” campaign for the public to participate in.

03 $1.75 trillion: optimism or a trap?

But skeptical voices are also real.

George-town University finance professor Reena Aggarwal’s observations are cold and measured: “Even with all the hype, a company still needs a market to absorb it.” With current geopolitical frictions and market volatility both running high, if the market turns before June, the entire plan could be overturned.

More fundamental doubt comes from the valuation structure itself.

Satellite Today’s analyst put it bluntly: “The core Starlink business itself can’t support a $1.5 trillion valuation. So you have to believe in those more speculative opportunities—and in trust in Elon Musk.”

A lunar base is “pure speculation,” and an orbital data center is “highly speculative,” according to qualitative assessment from Morningstar’s research department.

And xAI’s integration also isn’t without cost. Musk’s AI businesses are burning cash at an extremely fast pace. Some analysts worry that SpaceX’s core profits could be used to “subsidize” high-risk AI investments, thereby compressing the room for actual valuation premiums.

Another structural risk is Musk himself.

He simultaneously controls Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, X, and DOGE, and his political entanglement in Washington is only deepening. This means that SpaceX’s stock price, to some extent, is a function of “Musk risk.”

Scientific American’s observation is quite to the point: buying SpaceX stock means you accept their operating approach, including explosive failures and spectacular successes.

SpaceX’s IPO is a story about belief, not a story about financial statements.

If you believe Starship will send humans to the Moon, that Starlink will become Earth’s most important internet infrastructure, and that the “orbital data center” is more than just a PPT concept—then $1.75 trillion may be a reasonable starting point.

But in history, in every IPO where people are really “buying the future, not the company,” someone eventually ends up paying for the premium.

The Dutch East India Company story ended in bankruptcy.