Introduction

This report summarizes key policy developments and macroeconomic events affecting the Web3 industry over the past week. On March 14, the University of Michigan released its preliminary consumer sentiment survey for March, revealing that one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.9%, up from 4.3% in February. At the same time, the Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 67.8 to 57.9, marking its third consecutive month of decline. On March 17, the U.S. Census Bureau reported a 0.2% increase in retail sales for February compared to January, slightly below market expectations of 0.6%. Meanwhile, recent polls indicate that most U.S. voters oppose the idea of a national cryptocurrency reserve, with public spending priorities still focused on essential services. In Argentina, new regulations for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) have officially emerged, aiming to strengthen compliance and market stability. On March 19, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the federal funds rate within the target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with market expectations. Additionally, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to drop its appeal against Ripple Labs, ending a years-long legal battle. As the Web3 industry undergoes significant regulatory shifts, fluctuations in macroeconomic conditions continue to shape its trajectory.

Abstract

• March 14 – The University of Michigan’s March consumer expectations in the U.S. fell far below projections, with 5 to 10-year inflation expectations reaching the highest level since 1993.
• March 17 – The U.S. Census Bureau released February retail sales data, showing a 0.2% increase compared to January.
• March 17 – U.S. voters overwhelmingly oppose the strategic cryptocurrency reserve plan, with fiscal priorities remaining focused on public welfare.
• March 17 – Argentina officially implemented new VASP regulatory rules to strengthen compliance and market stability.
• March 18 – Canary Capital applied for an SUI spot ETF, drawing institutional attention to the Sui ecosystem.
• March 19 – The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it will maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
• March 20 – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) abandoned its appeal in the Ripple case.

Key Events

March 14 – U.S. March Michigan Consumer Expectations Far Below Expectations, 5-10 Year Inflation Expectations Hit Highest Since 1993

On March 14, the University of Michigan released its preliminary consumer sentiment survey for March, showing that one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.9%, a significant increase from 4.3% in February. Meanwhile, the Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 67.8 to 57.9, marking the third consecutive monthly decline, reflecting growing consumer concerns over future price increases and economic stability, particularly regarding Trump’s tariff policies and market volatility. On the same day, the U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, buoyed by market optimism over the government successfully avoiding a shutdown and the absence of further actions on Trump’s tariff policies. The cryptocurrency market was also affected, with Bitcoin rising 3.53% on the day. [1]

March 17 – U.S. Census Bureau Releases February Retail Sales Data, Showing 0.2% Growth from January

On March 17, the U.S. Census Bureau released retail sales data for February, showing a 0.2% increase from January, with total sales reaching $72.27 billion, adjusted for seasonality and holiday variations but not for price changes. This figure was slightly below market expectations of 0.6%. The report also provided sector-specific data: retail trade sales (excluding food services) increased by 0.5% from January; food and beverage stores saw a 3.9% year-over-year increase; non-store retailers (such as online sales) recorded a 6.5% year-over-year growth; while bar and restaurant sales declined by 1.5%, marking the third consecutive month of weakness.

The overall impact of the February retail sales data on financial markets was relatively moderate. The 0.2% growth was seen as a sign of economic stability, but the limited growth also raised concerns about the pace of economic expansion. Major stock indices reacted cautiously, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.1%; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rose 1.74% on the day. [2][3]

March 17 – U.S. Voters Largely Oppose Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve Plan, Fiscal Priorities Remain Focused on Public Welfare

A recent poll shows that the American public generally opposes the Trump administration’s plan to establish a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, with 51% against and only 34% in favor. Republican voters are divided on the issue (41% support vs. 40% oppose), while Democratic voters strongly oppose it (59% vs. 29%). Additionally, cryptocurrency and blockchain development rank as the lowest priority in federal fiscal spending, with only 10% of respondents supporting increased funding, 45% advocating budget cuts, while Social Security, Medicare, and transportation infrastructure remain the top public spending concerns. [4]

This result highlights the significant divide in U.S. society regarding cryptocurrency policy and suggests that it is generally viewed as a secondary issue. Although younger demographics are more open to crypto development, for the government to advance related initiatives, it will need to build broader societal consensus on fiscal spending priorities, regulatory frameworks, and economic benefits to alleviate public concerns.

March 17 – Argentina Officially Implements New VASP Regulations, Strengthening Compliance and Market Stability

The Argentine National Securities Commission (CNV) has officially approved General Resolution No. 1058, establishing final regulatory guidelines for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASP). The new regulations cover various aspects, including registration obligations, cybersecurity, asset custody, anti-money laundering measures, and risk disclosure requirements. The goal is to balance regulation and innovation, avoiding excessive regulatory burdens while enhancing market transparency and investor protection. Under the new rules, all VASPs must complete formal registration and comply with annual system audits and compliance requirements. For non-compliant entities, CNV may take measures such as suspension or revocation of registration, and in some cases, courts may order the seizure of unregistered virtual asset service providers.

Implementing Argentina’s new regulations marks accelerating compliance efforts in the Latin American crypto market. While some VASPs may exit or adjust their operations in the short term, in the long run, improved regulation is expected to attract more compliant capital, institutional investors, and increase market trust. Suppose the Argentine government can find the right balance between regulation and innovation. In that case, the country can potentially become one of the key crypto markets in the Latin American region. [5]

March 19 – U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Announces Decision to Maintain Federal Funds Rate Target at 4.25%–4.5%

On March 19, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its decision to maintain the federal funds rate target within the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The Fed stated that it still plans to implement two rate cuts in 2025 but lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7% (previously 2.1%) and expects inflation to approach 3% (above the 2% target). The Fed warned that the Trump administration’s tariff policies could exacerbate economic uncertainty and increase inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the Fed believes that adjustments in economic growth and inflation expectations somewhat offset each other, leading to the decision to maintain its rate cut projections. In this context, the U.S. dollar market reacted moderately, while most cryptocurrency assets rebounded, reflecting a positive market interpretation of the Fed’s decision. [6]

March 20 – U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Drops Appeal in Ripple Case

On March 19, 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it would drop its appeal against Ripple Labs, officially ending the years-long legal dispute. The SEC had previously sought to classify Ripple’s XRP token as a security, but Ripple had won in prior rulings, and the SEC’s decision to forgo an appeal further solidifies that outcome. This decision is considered a major victory for Ripple and could remove barriers to XRP’s market growth.

The SEC’s decision to drop the Ripple appeal is a landmark event with far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency industry. It suggests that regulatory agencies may shift their stance on crypto assets, becoming more inclined to accept projects that have gained legal recognition through court rulings. This could lead to a more relaxed regulatory environment for other cryptocurrency projects, encouraging further innovation and investment. Additionally, this development may attract more institutional players to the crypto market, particularly in payments and financial services, further advancing cryptocurrency adoption in the mainstream financial sector. [7]

Conclusion

This week, the cryptocurrency market was shaped by a mix of macroeconomic policies and regulatory shifts. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.5% and reaffirmed plans for two rate cuts in 2025, but it also lowered its GDP growth forecast and warned that tariffs could add to inflationary pressures. Markets reacted calmly, and crypto assets saw a rebound. On the regulatory side, a recent poll showed that most U.S. voters oppose the idea of a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, signaling that crypto remains a low fiscal priority. Meanwhile, Argentina rolled out new regulations for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) to enhance compliance and transparency, which could accelerate institutional adoption in Latin America. In a major legal development, the SEC dropped its appeal in the Ripple case, clearing the way for a more favorable regulatory environment for XRP and potentially encouraging further innovation and institutional investment in the crypto space. Overall, positive macroeconomic signals have fueled a crypto rally while evolving policies and regulations present challenges and opportunities. Going forward, the industry must strike a balance between innovation and compliance to ensure sustainable growth.


References:

1. Cryptocraft, https://www.cryptocraft.com/calendar?day=mar14.2025#graph=141259
2. Cryptocraft, https://www.cryptocraft.com/calendar?day=mar17.2025#graph=142335
3. Census, https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html
4. Data for progress, https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/3/14/a-majority-of-voters-oppose-a-crypto-strategic-reserve
5. Argentina.gob.ar, https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/regulacion-de-los-proveedores-de-servicios-de-activos-virtuales-psav
6. SEC,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2060703/000199937125002694/canarysui-s1_031725.htm
7. Cryptocraft,https://www.cryptocraft.com/calendar?day=mar20.2025
8. X, https://x.com/bgarlinghouse/status/1902345706636992720

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