Analisis Lengkap: Pembalikan Harga Ethereum Perlu Menembus Tembok $3.170!

Ethereum (ETH) is currently underperforming Bitcoin, down nearly 23% this month and trading near $3,013. Despite flashing a strong reversal signal, this setup has already failed once and will likely fail again unless the critical $3,170 resistance level is decisively broken.

I. Bearish Forces Crushing the Reversal

While technical indicators hint at a trend flip, structural and on-chain pressures are preventing any sustained upside: Failed Divergence History: A clean bullish divergence has formed on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), where the price made a lower low but the RSI made a higher low. Historically, this precedes trend flips. However, an identical reversal signal formed earlier in November and failed because it ran directly into the $3,170 resistance.Long-Term Holder Selling: Long-term Ethereum holders remain net-negative, actively adding selling pressure. On November 19, long-term holders were net-negative by 583,171 ETH, equivalent to approximately $175 million in selling pressure over a 24-hour period. Until this selling shifts to accumulation, any reversal remains fragile.Heavy Supply Cluster: The single strongest resistance cluster sits between $3,150 and $3,170, containing a supply of about 2.69 million ETH. This zone, which aligns perfectly with the 0.382 Fibonacci level, has rejected every breakout attempt and is the reason the previous reversal attempt failed.

II. Critical Support and Price Targets

The Ethereum price continues to trade inside a descending channel, making the $3,170 level the structural pivot for the entire trend: Critical Resistance Pivot: Unless Ethereum posts a daily close above $3,170, every bounce will remain temporary, and the overall trend stays bearish.Upside Target: If the breakout finally occurs, the next key target is $3,656, the upper Fibonacci zone where bullish momentum can reset.Downside Risk: Failure to cross $3,170, coupled with an inability to hold the minor support at $3,056, could push the Ethereum price back to the lower boundary of the descending channel.

III. Final Conclusion

Ethereum is currently trapped by an overwhelming supply wall at $3,170 and sustained selling from long-term holders. Although the RSI flashes a clear bullish divergence suggesting an imminent reversal, this structural selling pressure has crushed similar attempts before. The short-term trend remains bearish, and all eyes are on the $3,170 ceiling only a decisive close above this level can validate the reversal and clear the path toward the $3,656 target.

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on technical analysis and market data. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.