On January 20, 2025, Trump returned to D.C., and in just a few days brought not only multiple executive orders but also the $Trump and family coin combination. An unprecedented global financial baptism not only triggered upheaval and shock but also caused people to stay up all night due to FOMO. Solana was pushed to an all-time high, and Meme undoubtedly became the biggest focus.
Set aside profits and losses, the question is: is this the starting point or the endpoint?
No matter what Trump does, as mentioned in a previous article , Trump is merely leveraging the trend of Crypto to make decisions favorable to himself at this historical juncture. However, it can be said that the market value price of $Trump coin is a product built upon the global Consensus formed by the reverse construction of value expectations through Narratives over several cycles in the Crypto market. In simple terms, he has reached the pinnacle of monetizing Meme and narrative consensus.
Despite the ongoing frenzy of Meme until the end of January, the value fluctuations of single coins under high-risk PVP games and the drilling time are continuously shortening. It can be said that the quantitative experience of long-term investors and professional financial practitioners, including myself, has been completely overturned in front of gmgn and tgbot. However, the essential trend remains very clear: the peak always serves as a summary archive of the consensus from the previous stage, and the first curve of Crypto growth is about to end.
tl;dr
- Zero-Sum Game and the 7 Giants at the Table
2.The significance of the first growth curve of crypto and its strong ending
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Negative-sum game and the dilemma of the “last cycle” VC coin
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The trend of RYA/RWA and the rise of PayFi
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Bridging the Gap: The Second Curve of Crypto Growth
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The development pattern of Crypto under compliance issues and the situation in various countries
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Opportunities and Challenges in 2025 under Dramatic Changes
1. Zero-Sum Game and the 7 Giants at the Poker Table
In sixteen years and four cycles, Crypto has clearly slowed down in the wealth creation myth, with the most significant manifestation being the inability to shake off the 3 trillion curse. Starting in 2024, although the approval of ETFs has shifted the competition for BTC reserves from individuals and institutions to nations, the net outflow has offset a large amount of net inflow, and the growth dividend of the first curve is gradually shifting from a positive-sum game to a zero-sum game.
Last year at Token 2049 in Singapore, I metaphorically referred to 7 giants at the poker table. There’s an interesting scenario at a Texas hold 'em poker table: if you come to the table today not knowing who you’re going to take advantage of, then today you’ll be the one getting taken advantage of. This is a zero-sum game.
After the Crypto Market gradually moved towards a zero-sum game, the 7 giants that gradually emerged at the table are: No. 1 - exchange, No. 2 - financial institutions ( such as lending protocols and custodians ), No. 3 - market makers, No. 4 - project parties, No. 5 - large whales, No. 6 - VC, No. 7 - retail investors. In the previous cycle, the bull and bear alternated, due to the rapid growth trend of the first curve and the large amount of incremental funds, they were generally in a cross-cycle positive sum game, and the embarrassing relationship between the seven giants was not obvious. After entering 2021, the first curve slowed down significantly, the net growth rate of funds decreased significantly, and the table quickly entered a zero-sum or even negative-sum game. When the former No. 6 was awkwardly staring at the No. 7 position, the No. 1 position obviously felt the industry risk of the cold lips and teeth, so it began to increase the threshold and charged higher protection fees to the No. 4 and No. 3 positions, and the No. 4 position under the helplessness should have served the No. 5 and No. 6 positions well, but due to the change of the rules of the game, they had to turn to the game with it, and over time the grievances became a disease, and the game became difficult to maintain.
2. The Significance of the First Curve of Crypto Growth and Its Final Push
The significance of the first curve of crypto growth is similar to the missionary process of the Bible, Buddhist scriptures, and the Quran. It depicts faith through narrative, triggering gradual changes in subsequent production relations by building consensus among the first wave of people.
However, today’s world is different from history; first, the development is too rapid, and second, the speed of pragmatic verification is extremely fast. Therefore, merely proposing consensus without implementing it is unsustainable, and four cycles in sixteen years is already the limit. In this cycle, whether it’s DePIN, RWA, and BTCFi, or AI Agent, DeSci, and ZK; without real landing of Real Yield and Real Application, it is difficult to continue relying on the empty talk of Beta dividends for development. Trump’s victory is already the last continuation of a narrative consensus that is at its wit’s end; $Trump essentially represents the endpoint of the first growth curve of Crypto.
3. Negative-sum game and the dilemma of the “last cycle” VC coin
At the end of the first growth curve in Crypto, the competition on the residual battlefield is indeed fierce. Despite high valuations from VC funding, high FDV with low liquidity, narratives without products that are hard to falsify, high TVL with long staking that is difficult to redeem, and the ongoing agony of high listing/MM fees, the difficulties are very apparent.
In the end of zero-sum games, if the boundary of the first curve is not broken, not only will miraculous creation from nothing be impossible, but vicious competition will also lead to negative-sum games. The “last cycle” predicted by many is exactly such a result. The “last cycle” is certainly not the end of Crypto, but rather the VC coin projects that have only narrative consensus without real landing of Real Yield and Real Application are unsustainable.
It is worth mentioning that Meme here is a special interstitial product. In terms of narrative consensus characteristics, it still belongs to the first curve, but it breaks people’s understanding of finance in an unprecedented way. Through rapid launch and quick games, it rudely breaks the problems of VC high valuation financing, high FDV low liquidity, high TVL long staking, and the costs associated with Listing and MM. It establishes a definitive milestone for the first curve through a destructive method, while also laying a legitimate foundation for the second curve in a global circumvention manner.
4. The Trend of RYA/RWA and the Rise of PayFi
In mid-January 2025, I met a founder of a project from Nigeria at an LP meeting in Salt Lake City. David demonstrated his popular PayFi product to me and told me that currently in Nigeria, the usage of Crypto in payments, finance, and assets has exceeded 50% (including fiat). Due to a large population being ineligible for KYC through traditional financial systems, they are directly using Crypto tools.
I remember in 2014 hearing Li Yanhong, the CEO of Baidu, speaking at a conference in Beijing, stating that China is a place where the industrial revolution and the internet happened simultaneously, so new things like internet finance would emerge quickly in China. It is now clear that more than a decade later, a similar revolution combining the development of foundational industries + Web3 is rapidly unfolding in Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America. Logistics, trade, manufacturing, and financial settlement companies, including those from China, the U.S., and Russia, have had to adapt to the demands of their partners and rapidly get involved in this transformation.
Therefore, the mainstream Crypto market does not need to self-justify any adjustment conditions. The data samples from Nigeria and India have already shown us that the speed of transformation brought by 2025 will exceed expectations. The second growth curve of Crypto under the rise of Real Yield Asset, Real World Application, and PayFi is already within reach.
5. Bridging the Gap: The Second Curve of Crypto Growth
It is clear that the second growth curve of Crypto is practical applications, Real Yield & Real Application.
<crossing the=“” chasm(=“” >The book “跨越鸿沟” mentions that the process of the development and popularization of a new thing has five stages: 1. Innovator, 2. Early Adopter, 3. Early Majority, 4. Late Majority, 5. Laggards.
During the stages of 2 to 3, a significant gap will appear, making it very difficult for the vast majority of products to cross or requiring a long time to do so. For Crypto, it is clear that the 3 trillion curse is this gap itself, where Early Adopters are the group that accepts the narrative, while the Early Majority are those who must see substantial real-world applications producing economic effects.
Once Real Yield & Real Application are achieved, the second curve of Crypto growth will rapidly explode, becoming the mainstream economy, finance, assets, and the trading and settlement foundation of payments in this world.
$Trump has miraculously played a milestone role at this point; it is both an end and a beginning. Additionally, Trump’s gradual fulfillment of his election promise to ease Crypto restrictions, along with measures such as rescinding SAB 121, has provided a sufficient basis of legitimacy for the growth of the second curve.
6. The Development Pattern of Crypto Under Compliance Issues and the Situations in Various Countries ) and Regions (
In the face of such sudden changes, most countries and regions find it difficult to provide a clear preemptive legislation )Preemptive Legislation( for management. For many regions mentioned earlier, such as Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America, Trump’s victory and open policies provide the most comfortable decision-making conditions for reactive legislation )Reactive Legislation( for managing Crypto, and thus a rapid outbreak is expected to accelerate this year.
Singapore and Hong Kong still tend to be front-loaded in terms of financial management, but there is a corresponding easing trend after Trump took office and introduced the Crypto-related executive order. The Ethereum ETF and 1, 9 upgrades issued by Hong Kong, China in 2024 are ahead of the curve but also have certain risk pressure, which has gradually eased at this stage, and further regulates the issuance and use of stablecoins in the management regulations that MSO continues to introduce in the near future; For example, the DPT regulatory framework under the PSA has not yet made further detailed provisions on the issuance and use of stablecoins in addition to payments, and it is more likely that this space will continue to be post-reserved.
In summary, by the end of January 2025, the global compliance regulations regarding the development landscape of Crypto are generally becoming friendly under the influence of Trump’s presidency. This situation cannot be described as a stable state, but it has won some time for the second curve transformation of Crypto growth.
7.Opportunities and challenges in 2025 under the turning point of upheaval
The turning point brought by the second curve is bidirectional, meaning it will have a qualitative change and far-reaching impact on both the Crypto Market and TradFi.
For the Crypto Market, this represents a habitual shift similar to changing gears. This process is likely to alter the inherent 4-year halving cycle, or at least change the impact of sentiment and consensus on the fluctuations of bull and bear markets based on the original foundation. As a result, it will undoubtedly change the criteria for evaluating projects, assets, and application values within the industry. In terms of the global economic, financial, asset, and payment environment, this is a more fundamental challenge that will alter the dollar-denominated financial credit system, which has been based on U.S. credit since the Bretton Woods Agreement, as well as the economic realities largely dominated by Keynesian thought.
