Short-term holders stop loss before the FOMC! Can Bitcoin hold the 100,000 USD mark?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen under pressure to $113,000 ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, with market sentiment showing a range-bound situation between bulls and bears. Short-term holders (STH) have experienced their first loss selling this year, and the spot Bitcoin ETF has also recorded significant capital outflows, sparking discussions in the market about whether BTC can hold above $100,000 or even return to its previous highs.

Short-term holders stop-loss, SOPR indicator drops below 1

(Source: CryptoQuant)

CryptoQuant data shows that since the crash in January, short-term holders have experienced their first loss-selling, with the STH-SOPR index dropping below 1, indicating that investors who entered recently are selling below their cost price.

Historically, this situation often signifies that the market is at an emotional turning point:

If selling pressure continues, it may weaken upward momentum.

If weak hands clear out, it may instead create conditions for bulls to regroup.

ETF fund outflows intensify market pressure

(Source: Glassnode)

On August 18, the net outflow of Spot Bitcoin ETF reached 121.7 million USD, of which:

iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) net outflow of $68.7 million

21Shares Ark Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had a net outflow of $65.7 million.

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw a net inflow of $12.7 million against the trend.

Continuous capital outflows reflect the cautious attitude of American institutional investors, which may suppress the performance of BTC prices in the short term.

FOMC Meeting Minutes Become Key Observation Point

(Source: CME Fed Watch)

The market widely expects that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting is close to 83%, but recent PPI data has risen, causing expectations for the number of rate cuts to drop from three to two.

If the meeting minutes show a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, it may further impact risk assets, including Bitcoin; conversely, if a dovish signal is released, BTC may have the opportunity to challenge the resistance above $120,000 again.

Analyst View: The pullback may be smaller than historical cycles

PlanB's survey shows that market concerns about BTC dropping below 100,000 USD are rising; analyst Rekt Capital believes that the current correction may be smaller than the 29% in 2017 and 25% in 2021, and the duration may be shorter.

Currently, BTC is priced at 115,629 USD, with a 24-hour range-bound fluctuation of 114,470–117,050 USD, and a volume decrease of 2.4%, indicating that the market is in a wait-and-see mode before major news.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a critical decision point: short-term holders are cutting losses, ETF funds are flowing out, and macro policy uncertainty makes $100,000 a dual psychological and technical defense line. The FOMC meeting minutes will be a catalyst for determining BTC's next move, and investors should closely monitor the battle between the support level of $112,000 and the resistance level of $120,000.