The uncertainty of the Fed and Trump's tariffs have led to risk aversion, with gold hitting a historical high; US stock futures are falling, and Bitcoin is testing key support.

Under the combined effects of uncertainty in Fed policy, Trump tariff risks, and concerns about stagflation, gold prices soared to a record $3,509. Although U.S. stock futures fell after the Labor Day holiday, the Japanese stock market rose against the trend. The market is closely watching the key employment data from the U.S. set to be released this week, which will determine the Fed's future interest rate path and may exacerbate the inherent fluctuations in September. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has re-tested the historical on-chain support of the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price after a price drop, indicating that long positions are trying to defend this critical level.

Global Stock Market Performance: Asian Markets Diverge, US Stock Futures Decline

After a strong rebound on Monday, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai stock market fell on Tuesday due to profit-taking. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.33%, the tech index plummeted by 1.46%, and popular tech stocks like Alibaba also saw a correction. Meanwhile, the Australian stock market also declined as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of data from the U.S. Labor Department.

However, the Japanese stock market is going against the trend, with the Nikkei index rising due to the weakening yen. Although Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino warned of tariff risks, his remarks indicate that the Bank of Japan needs more time to assess the impact of tariffs, thereby reducing market bets on an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the fourth quarter, which in turn led to a weaker yen, boosting export-oriented companies.

After the close of the Asian market, U.S. stock futures fell in early trading. Investors are closely following President Trump’s upcoming speech at the White House, with the market expecting him to comment on several topics such as tariffs, policies, or the Fed, which could further exacerbate market fluctuations.

Historical data shows that September is typically the most challenging month for the markets. Since 1927, in the first year of the presidential cycle, the S&P 500 index has experienced declines in September 58% of the time, with an average return of -1.62%, indicating that the market is about to enter a period of high fluctuation.

Gold Hits Record High, Market Risks Intensify

In the face of uncertainty regarding Fed policies, trade tariffs, and concerns about stagflation, the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset has further increased. In early trading, the spot gold price soared to a record 3,509 USD, highlighting the market's worries about risk.

This week, the market focus will shift to the U.S. labor market data, including ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs job openings, ADP employment report, initial jobless claims, ISM Services PMI, and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. Economists predict that the August ISM Manufacturing PMI may rise from 48 in July to 49. If the data shows weakness, it could increase market bets on a rate cut by the Fed and boost market sentiment; however, if the data indicates severe deterioration, considering the rising inflation trend in July, it may raise concerns about stagflation and lead to increased risk aversion.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Retesting Key on-chain Support

Against the backdrop of widespread declines in U.S. stock futures and Asian markets, Bitcoin also experienced a pullback, but its price re-tested a key on-chain support level—the Realized Price of short-term holders (STH).

The "actual price" is an on-chain metric that measures the average cost of all investors in the Bitcoin network. Short-term holders (those holding coins for less than 155 days) are typically considered "weak hands," and they tend to react when the price falls near their cost basis. Currently, the actual price for short-term Bitcoin holders is around 107,500 USD. In the recent decline, the Bitcoin price briefly fell below this level before quickly rebounding, indicating that short-term holders view this as a "buying opportunity" and believe that the bullish trend still exists.

However, if the Bitcoin price cannot maintain above this support level and breaks down again, it may turn into a bearish trend in the short term, similar to what happened in February this year.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $109,200, having fallen by 2% over the past seven days. Investors are closely following this key support level to determine whether Bitcoin can maintain its resilience amid macro market fluctuations.

Conclusion

The global financial markets are entering a period full of uncertainty. Under the combined effects of Fed policies, trade tariffs, and geopolitical risks, the safe-haven properties of gold have become prominent, reaching a historic high. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures fell after the Labor Day holiday, signaling that a challenging September may be approaching. The crypto market has not been spared either, as Bitcoin is retesting its key on-chain support level. The upcoming U.S. employment data this week will be a decisive factor for the market, with its outcome directly affecting the Fed's interest rate path and potentially intensifying market fluctuations. For investors, this is a critical moment that requires close attention and cautious operation, as the resilience of the market will be tested by various risk factors.