Bitcoin hashrate drop may point to a potential price rebound: VanEck

Bitcoin’s network activity is flashing a signal that has often appeared near market lows.
Summary

• Bitcoin hashrate fell 4%, the steepest drop since April 2024.
• Corporate treasuries bought 42,000 BTC as exchange-traded product holdings declined.
• Past hashrate drops saw 180-day Bitcoin price gains averaging 72%.

The latest data shows pressure across miners, traders, and short-term holders, even as long-term conviction stays intact.

Bitcoin’s network hashrate fell about 4% over the past 30 days, the sharpest drop since April 2024, according to VanEck’s latest report. The pullback followed a rough month for price action, with Bitcoin (BTC) down 9% and volatility spiking above 45%, the highest since April this year.

Miner stress deepens as hashrate slips

Mining economics have tightened fast. The breakeven electricity cost for a 2022-era S19 XP miner dropped from $0.12 in December 2024 to about $0.077 this month. Fees are also weaker, with daily fee revenue down 14% month over month, while new address growth slipped 1%.

VanEck notes that hashrate declines often appear when miners are forced offline or scale back. Historically, these periods have tended to mark exhaustion rather than the start of deeper sell-offs.

VanEck’s long-term data shows that Bitcoin has often performed better after hashrate weakness. Since 2014, when 90-day hashrate growth turned negative, 180-day forward returns were positive 77% of the time, with an average gain of 72%. Outside those periods, average returns were closer to 48%.

The current slowdown is also tied to external factors. In China’s Xinjiang region, about 1.3 GW of mining capacity was reportedly shut down amid policy scrutiny, potentially removing up to 10% of global hashpower. Around 400,000 machines may have gone offline.

Corporate buyers step in as leverage fades

While spot Bitcoin ETP holdings fell 120 basis points month over month to 1.308 million BTC, corporate treasuries moved the other way. Digital asset treasuries added 42,000 BTC between mid-November and mid-December, lifting total holdings to 1.09 million BTC. That was the largest accumulation since July.

Much of the buying came from Strategy, which added 29,400 BTC as its market NAV stayed above 1. Other firms are now shifting away from common stock issuance and toward preferred shares to fund future purchases.

On-chain data also shows a clear split among holders. Coins held for 1–5 years saw sharp balance declines, including a 12.5% drop in the 2–3 year cohort. In contrast, coins held for over five years barely moved, with balances largely flat or slightly higher

For now, VanEck sees a familiar pattern. Short-term pressure is shaking out weaker hands, miners are under strain, and long-term holders are not selling. In past cycles, that mix has often set the stage for steadier price action in the months that followed.