Will the Santa Rally at the end of the year create a buzz again?

There is a common phenomenon between the crypto space and traditional stock markets, which is the Santa Claus Rally. This term originated in the stock market and refers to the optimistic market atmosphere around Christmas every year, which sometimes pushes asset prices up, as if Santa Claus is delivering red envelopes from his red bag. Although this phenomenon is more of a psychological expectation, in the crypto market, it turns into a perfect storm of FOMO + relaxed funding + festive tweets + KOL hype. Dogecoin, as a narrative meme coin, is the type of asset that is most easily speculated on during such a rally. If the market sentiment turns fully optimistic at the end of the year, Bitcoin breaks new highs, and funds flow back, DOGE, being a low-entry and fun option, has every chance to be reignited.

Trump, DOGE department and Elon’s political humor?

Trump has established an agency called the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) that is dedicated to cutting waste and improving government efficiency. What’s even more interesting is that the co-head of this department is none other than Tesla CEO, X boss, and long-time Dogecoin believer Elon Musk. On the surface, this looks like a political gimmick, but from a narrative standpoint, this is one of Web3’s favorite scripts, with Trump, who is about to return to the White House, emphasizing decentralization and reducing the federal deficit.

On the other side is the globally most influential tech tycoon personally endorsing D.O.G.E.; the two are collaborating in a department with a dogecoin implied abbreviation, this collaboration directly connects the cryptocurrency world with the political narrative.

The cultural upgrade of memes

From PEPE, WIF, BONK to the recently popular PONKE, meme coins have never truly exited the scene; they have simply gone through phases of changing skins and cultural contexts. Although DOGE is one of the most OG meme coins, it also faces higher demands from the new generation of Z investors for fun and community engagement. If DOGE is really going to reach $1, it will not only depend on market consensus but also require some sort of narrative upgrade, perhaps further integration with the X platform; or DOGE could serve as a bridge for some sort of cross-border payment (like Starlink?). It is also possible that, as Elon stated, Tesla supports purchasing cars with DOGE, which could potentially trigger a historic catalyst.

Risk Warning

The volatility of DOGE is legendary among all meme coins, and it has historically experienced significant price corrections. It cannot be ignored that this is a narrative speculation accompanied by high risks. Moreover, DOGE is not a deflationary token; 5 billion coins are issued annually, which means it lacks the advantage of scarcity, unlike BTC, which can support long-term price increases through supply deflation.

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Summary

Whether Dogecoin can reach $1 will depend on whether the narrative can be reignited. If the D.O.G.E department can make some breakthrough achievements, combined with meme virality and the year-end funding market fermentation, $1 will no longer be just a joke, but rather the endpoint of a community FOMO storm. However, if the narrative is weak, funding is indifferent, and KOLs do not perform, DOGE will continue to hover around $0.2 as a textbook example for newcomers.