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XRP wins the lawsuit! Spot ETF becomes the key catalyst, can BTC reach new heights again after hitting a record high?
The U.S. SEC has officially withdrawn its appeal against Ripple, ending a years-long legal dispute and shifting its focus to establishing a clear encryption regulatory framework. The short-term price movement of XRP will depend on the progress of the Spot ETF, U.S. banking license applications, and news related to SWIFT collaborations. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has pulled back after reaching a historic high of $122,190 on August 11, and the market is watching whether U.S. CPI data will become a catalyst or risk factor for the next wave of market trends.
SEC withdraws appeal, Ripple achieves another major victory
On August 11, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce issued a statement confirming the withdrawal of the Ripple appeal and called for a shift in focus towards establishing clear encryption regulatory rules. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins also stated that innovation should be promoted while protecting investors.
Disqualification of bad actors: The SEC has agreed to revoke Ripple's "bad actor" status, meaning Ripple can resume the exemption for securities issuance, clearing the way for fundraising and business expansion (including applying for a national bank license in the United States).
Legal significance: Encryption lawyer Bill Morgan pointed out that this will greatly expand Ripple's operational space in the capital markets and may accelerate its global payment network layout.
XRP Price Outlook: ETF, Bank Licenses, and SWIFT Collaboration are Key
(Source: Trading View)
On August 11, XRP fell 1.74% to $3.1326, ending a five-day rally. Since reaching a high of $3.3826 on August 8, the price has continued to decline, mainly due to the lack of new developments in the Spot ETF market.
Upward target: Breaking through 3.20 USD is expected to retest 3.3830 USD. If it can continue to break through, it will open the door to challenge the historical high of 3.6606 USD.
Downside risk: A drop below $3.10 could trigger a retest of the $2.9184 support and expose the 50-day EMA.
Focus: The progress of the XRP Spot ETF application, the status of bank license approvals in the United States, and news about cooperation with SWIFT may all serve as catalysts for price breakthroughs.
BTC has fallen back after reaching a new historical high, ETF funds have continued to see a net inflow for four days
Bitcoin fell to 118,699 USD after reaching a historic high of 122,190 USD on August 11, a daily decline of 0.29%.
Institutional buying pressure: The US BTC Spot ETF market has recorded net inflows for four consecutive days, with total inflows reaching 39.9 million USD on August 11, led by Fidelity and Grayscale products.
Long-term holder dynamics: Strategy (MSTR) commemorates the fifth anniversary of adopting the Bitcoin standard, holding 628,946 BTC, firmly ranking first in the global corporate coin holding list.
Macroeconomic Risk: US CPI May Become a Turning Point for the Market
The US July CPI data will be released on August 12, with the market expecting the annual growth rate to rise from 2.7% to 2.8%, and the core inflation rate to rise to 3%.
Bearish scenario: Inflation higher than expected → Federal Reserve maintains hawkish stance → Suppresses BTC and risk assets.
Bullish scenario: Inflation lower than expected → Interest rate cut expectations rise → Driving BTC to reach new highs.
BTC Technical Outlook
(Source: Trading View)
Bullish scenario: If the CLARITY Act progresses smoothly, CPI is below expectations, and ETF funds continue to flow in, BTC is expected to break through $122,190 and aim for higher targets.
Bearish scenario: If legislation is obstructed, inflation rises, and ETF funds start flowing out, BTC may test 115,000 USD or even the 50-day EMA.
Conclusion
Ripple's victory over the SEC has opened up broader development space for XRP, but the short-term trend still requires catalysts such as ETFs and banking licenses to drive it. Although Bitcoin has reached a historic high, CPI data and macro policy direction will determine whether it can continue its upward trend. In the coming days, the trends of XRP and BTC will become the barometers of the encryption market.