Today's crypto market: Experts predict that XRP, SOL, and DOGE will pull back 15-20% after the Fed lowers interest rates.

On the eve of the highly anticipated Fed rate cut, the crypto market is undergoing a pullback. Alts such as XRP, SOL, and DOGE are leading the decline, with total liquidations surging to $240 million, of which long positions accounted for as much as $176 million. Although there is a long-term optimism for the arrival of altcoin season, analysts warn that under the influence of the "Triple Witching" effect and the resurgence of Bitcoin's dominance, alts may face a further decline risk of 15-20% in the short term.

Market pullback, long positions liquidations surge

After last week's bullish trend, the crypto market has encountered sell-the-news pressure ahead of the Fed's interest rate cut. Bitcoin's price faced resistance around $116,000, while mainstream alts led by XRP, SOL, and DOGE began to experience significant pullbacks. This decline led to massive liquidations, with a total liquidation amount reaching $240 million, of which as much as $176 million was from long positions, indicating that many leveraged traders were unprepared for this pullback.

Short-term Risks: Macroeconomic Factors and the "Triple Witching Day" Effect

Analysts warn that the short-term outlook for the market is not optimistic. Crypto market analyst Ted Pillows pointed out that September's "Triple Witching"—a quarterly event where stock options, index options, and futures contracts expire simultaneously—could lead to short-term weakness in the US stock market and spillover effects on the crypto market.

Historically, since the year 2000, the average return of the S&P 500 index in the week following "Triple Witching Day" has been -1.17%. If history repeats itself, the analyst warns that Bitcoin could fall by 5% to 8%, while alts may face a more severe drop of 15% to 20%.

Long-term Outlook: Altcoin Season Still Anticipated

Despite the short-term pressure in the market, bullish sentiment remains strong in the long run. The latest "altcoin season index" has risen to 84, indicating that the market meets the conditions to enter the altcoin season. Additionally, the upcoming Fed interest rate cuts this week, along with the expectation of three rate cuts before the end of the year by several financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, could increase investors' risk appetite and create favorable conditions for a full-blown altcoin season. Many analysts believe that the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 may mark the beginning of a parabolic altcoin season, during which the performance of altcoins will significantly outperform Bitcoin.

BTC Relatively Strong, Alts Face Tests

(Source: iWantCoinNews)

The most significant contradiction in the current market is that, despite the general fall of altcoins, the price of Bitcoin remains solid at $116,000, demonstrating stronger relative resilience. At the same time, Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) is showing signs of rebound from the key support level of 57.5%. If this indicator rises to 60%, it will mean that Bitcoin will outperform altcoins in the current cycle, further delaying the arrival of altcoin season.

Conclusion

The current crypto market is at a crossroads, with short-term macroeconomic and technical headwinds challenging its long-term bullish narrative. Long and short signals are interwoven, and the market direction remains unclear. Investors should remain cautious and closely monitor the dynamics of traditional financial markets and changes in on-chain indicators to navigate this period of uncertainty.