Experts confirm Bitcoin bottomed at $80,000 as buyers return

The Bitcoin market (BTC) is undergoing one of the fastest capitulation phases since late 2022. However, some analysts believe that historical data has confirmed the $80,000 region as the bottom of the current cycle.

Capitulation volume confirms high-probability bottom for BTC

Analyst Astronomer notes that the current negative sentiment, with advice to “wait for the trend” or claims that the bull cycle is over, is actually appearing at an inopportune time. According to the capitulation volume model based on the three-layer rule for weekly candles, this model has consistently identified previous cycle bottoms before the market made a strong reversal. Specifically, when three consecutive red candles with high volume appear, it is often a signal for a major reversal.

Analyzing 11 historical cases, this pattern has delivered consistent results. In 2 out of 11 instances, Bitcoin rebounded about 35% before resuming its downtrend. Notably, in 8 out of 11 cases, this marked the beginning of a new bull run, taking BTC to unprecedented highs. Only one case led to a prolonged downtrend, making it a statistical outlier.

According to projections, there is a 91% chance that BTC will reach $118,000 from the current price, a 99% chance it will hit $112,000, and a 75% probability that the bull market will continue.

Astronomer emphasizes that market sentiment is the biggest “trap”; selling at this time or waiting for trend confirmation both reflect the majority’s caution and carry the risk of having to buy back at higher prices.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio has now dropped to -1.6, which is often seen as a sign the market is undervalued and presents a short-term recovery opportunity. However, trader Darkfost warns against using leverage in the current context.

BiBitcoin NVT golden ratio chart | Source: Darkfost/X

Arthur Hayes: “The $80,000 level will hold as liquidity increases”

According to Coinphoton, Arthur Hayes believes that the recent 35% drop in BTC to $80,500 has set the cycle bottom, based on forecasts of the end of the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening cycle and increased lending activity by US banks.

Hayes expects that as market liquidity improves, there will be a “rising tide lifts all boats” effect for the entire crypto sector. He states: “We may fluctuate below $90K, even dip into the low $80Ks, but $80K will hold.” According to Hayes, the next growth driver for the market will come from liquidity expansion, not market sentiment.

On-chain data also supports this view. According to CryptoQuant, BTC just recorded its largest net realized loss since the FTX incident, but the market quickly recovered. The rapid absorption of forced sell orders indicates that circulating supply has been cleansed, allowing BTC to hold the $80,000–$85,000 range if traditional markets remain stable.

Mr. Giao