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U.S. Treasury bonds recover some losses from last week as the market bets that data recovery will boost rate cut expectations.
According to Jinse Finance, with UK government bonds leading the way, US Treasury bonds have recovered some ground lost last week. Despite an early setback in the corporate bond market at the start of this week—Amazon issued $12 billion in dollar-denominated bonds (its first dollar bond issuance since 2022)—the rebound in Treasury bonds has been maintained. Similarly, on Monday, the index measuring factory activity in New York unexpectedly increased, reaching its highest level in a year. Nevertheless, most Treasury yields still fell by 1 to 3 basis points. Earlier predictions suggested that with the end of the six-week government shutdown last week, the final restoration of federal economic statistics would boost the prospects of the Fed cutting rates again next month. Morgan Stanley's interest rate strategist predicts that by mid-2026, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond will fall to 3.75%, and in the most bullish scenario, it could even reach 2.40%. Although during the shutdown, there was no...
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