08:20
4E: The U.S. has resumed the release of employment data, but the "shutdown window period" still leaves policy visibility unclear.
According to 4E observations, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will resume the release of the delayed September non-farm payroll report due to the government shutdown this Thursday, ending a two-month gap in official data. However, this data is viewed as "outdated information" due to latency, and its market impact may be relatively limited.
The Dow Jones consensus expects approximately 50,000 new jobs in September, higher than the original estimate of 22,000 for August, but still reflects a weak labor market; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, with a month-on-month wage growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, basically in line with the previous values. RSM Chief Economist Bru Suelas believes that the revised data for September and the previous two months may be slightly better than expected, but overall remains weak.
The impact of the standstill on the data system is even more profound. The BLS has confirmed that it will combine the employment reports for October and November to be released on December 16, and the unemployment rate for October will not be released separately; job vacancies (JOLTS) will also be combined.

