Ethereum traders are targeting $3,000, but historical data raises some red flags for the ETH price
ETH bulls are calling for $3,000 as ETH's next stop, but the AltCoin has corrected 46% when it last traded above that level.
Following Ethereum's rising trend over the past 10 days, the price has been on an upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 21.5% during this period, approaching the $2,800 level. Crypto Assets's bullish momentum has been attributed to the massive inflow of recently launched Spot Bitcoin Bitcoin however, there are other drivers for the Ether coin that could push its price above $3,000 – a level that left scars when it was last tested in March 2022. Will the outcome of Ether's eventual Rebound to $3,000 be different?
From a bullish perspective, Ether could consolidate its sub-leadership position as the second Crypto Assets to list Spot ETFs on US exchanges. This will set it apart from competitors such as Solana and BNB Chain in terms of access and regulation. Including that the exchange is still facing a lawsuit from the United States SEC (SEC) regarding the issuance of securities. Therefore, the approval of the Ethereum ETF in the United States will greatly reduce investor uncertainty.
Other positive drivers for Ethereum include the Dencun network upgrade, which is expected to take place on March 13. One of the purposes of Hard Fork is to drop Ethereum the Transaction Cost of Layer 2. By providing more block space and dropping aggregated gas costs, these changes can potentially increase the usage of its Decentralization Applications (DApps) and increase deposits in its Smart Contracts. This, in turn, means a higher demand for ETH.
Ether bulls have multiple reasons to believe $3,000 is within reach, but history has shown that maintaining such a price level is much more difficult. For example, in the three weeks leading up to April 3, 2022, ETH rose by 42%, from $2,520 to $3,580. However, this rally proved unsustainable, and its price plummeted by 46% over the next 40 days. Traders are now questioning whether Ether will face a similar outcome this time around.
The first indicator that should be analyzed is Ethereum's contango, which indicates the need for leverage between longs (buyers) and bears (sellers). Since there is no variable funding intrerest rate, professional traders prefer monthly futures contracts, but these instruments tend to trade at a premium of 5% to 10% to compensate for their longer settlement periods.
The data shows that on February 10, the ETH futures premium soared above the 10% neutral threshold and is currently hovering around 15%. Although not considered excessively high, this level suggests that the bulls need additional leverage as ETH rises from $2,300 to the current $2,800 level. In comparison, the annualized premium (basis rate) of 5.5% in early April 2022 was considered neutral.
One should analyze the Options market to better gauge how professional traders use the 25% Delta skew as a proxy for positioning. If a trader expects the price of Ethereum to fall, the deviation indicator will rise above 7%, while the deviation during periods of excitement is usually -7%.
The Delta Skewness indicator entered the -7% threshold of the Bull Market on February 9 and is now near its lowest level in three months. These findings, consistent with ETH futures data, paint a picture of moderate optimism, which, while not excessive, is unbalanced between bulls and bears.
Traders who bet on price increases based on the likelihood of Ethereum Spot ETF approval may be disappointed, especially if they use leverage. Even with a 70% chance of approval from Bloomberg ETF senior analysts, the SEC's final deadline is May 23, which means that even if ETH breaches $3,000 before the event, price Fluctuation poses a significant liquidation risk. Nevertheless, Ethereum Derivatives indicators show a completely different picture from April 2022, so for ETH bulls everything is not yet determined.
(DATA SOURCE: MARCEL PECHMAN)