Bitcoin Whale exhibit different behaviors than past cycles, but why?
on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin Whale exhibited a different behavior in terms of trade inflows compared to the previous cycle. That's why it's so. As one analyst explained in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, this time the BTC Whale moves differently compared to the previous cycle.
The metric of interest here is "Exchange Inflows", which tracks the total amount of Bitcoin transferred to all Centralized Exchange affiliated wallets. In the context of the current discussions, derivation platforms are of particular interest.
When the value of this indicator is high, it means that investors deposit a large amount of money on these exchanges. This trend usually indicates a high demand for the services offered by these derivatives trading. In general, the unusual spikes in this indicator are related to the movement of whales, because only these huge holders can cause such a big change.
On the other hand, when the value of this metric is low, it indicates that the Whale is not depositing anything significant with these platforms, which may indicate that they do not want to take risks in terms of derivatives.
Now, Figure 1 is a chart shared by this quant, which shows Bitcoin trading inflows from derivatives trading exchanges. The indicator in the graph also has another condition attached: it only tracks inflows from whales that have been held for at least 1 month and longest for 3 months.
These will be Newbie Whale on the market, but not so new that they only buy them (those Whale that have been held for less than 1 month). Limiting this time frame also excludes data from traders who make a lot of fluctuations in a short period of time on average.
As the analyst highlights in the chart, when speculation peaks, such whales usually flow heavily into derivatives platforms around the significant tops and bottoms of crypto assets. But interestingly, although the Crypto Assets has broken through its previous all-time high (ATH), it hasn't seen such a big spike in inflows this year.
One explanation could be that the Whale is not interested in taking any real action right now. However, the more likely reason may be that spot trading traded funds (ETFs) now exist.
Spot ETF Holds Bitcoin on behalf of clients and gives them indirect access to Crypto Assets in a way that traditional investors are familiar with.
ETFs have created huge demand for assets and are quickly becoming an important part of the market. With this new investment vehicles, the usual Crypto Assets exchange may no longer have the same correlation as the asset. This is probably why the patterns that existed in the last Bitcoin cycle seem to have disappeared from the current cycle.
Bitcoin is trading at around $66,100 and has fall more than 8% over the past week.
(Source: Keshav Verma)