Analysis: Beware of the $82,000 long positions lifeline; if it falls below, market makers will sell Spot hedging, leading to an accelerated decline.

On November 21, on-chain data analyst Murphy issued a warning. According to the realized price distribution of Bitcoin (URPD), the real largest selling range in the past three days was a cost of $88,000 - $89,000, with a total of 64,334 BTC sold, and there was no large amount of selling in the range where chips were most concentrated. Currently, the market is falling, and most of the selling is from chips bought at recent highs being “dumped,” while the profit-taking chips and high-position trapped chips are not the main sellers. The analyst believes that part of this is due to short-term/high-frequency funds being forced into stop loss behavior, and a larger reason is that the trading mechanism of the derivatives market makers amplifies short-term fluctuations. The options net premium heatmap shows that there is a large amount of put selling in the current range of $82,000 to $87,000. When BTC approaches $82,000, market makers are forced to buy BTC due to the trading mechanism, establishing a “bottom support structure” here. If it falls significantly below $82,000, the market makers' “risk exposure” will become huge, and they must quickly “sell” BTC to hedge. The analyst believes that $82,000 is the lifeline for the current long positions. If it falls below $82,000, market makers will further sell spot to hedge, which will push for a waterfall-like acceleration in the decline.