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Today is the 292nd day since I started posting updates, and I haven't missed a single day. Each post is not done half-heartedly, but is carefully prepared. [微笑] If you think I am a serious person, you can follow me, and I hope the content I share every day can help you. The world is big, and I am small, so please follow me to avoid difficulty in finding me. [微笑][微笑]
The United States is sick, yet makes the world take medicine; even the uninhabited islands where penguins live are taxed by Trump. What is he really up to? To answer this question, let's first explain what reciprocal tariffs mean. Simply put, it means that if you charge me a certain amount of tariff, I will also charge you the same amount in tariff. It sounds reasonable at first, but upon closer examination, you'll find that it is full of loopholes and causes endless harm. For example, take sports shoes. Let's say sports shoes produced in Vietnam are sold in the U.S. for $40 after tariffs, while American-made sports shoes cost much more and need to be sold for $80. According to the logic of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. would have to add a $40 tariff on Vietnamese sports shoes, resulting in them also selling for $80 in the U.S. Now, Vietnamese sports shoes are selling for $80 in America—who would buy them? Americans can't afford it, and the factories in Vietnam would have to shut down, making it tough for both sides. Consumers in other countries also suffer, as they can't get cheap sports shoes!
Behind the equal tariffs, Trump must have other considerations. When a country's currency becomes a major global reserve currency, a trade deficit is inevitably present. The US dollar is currently the world's hard currency; to facilitate its circulation globally, what should be done? It's simple: the US imports goods from other countries. For example, if it buys $100 worth of goods from China but only sells $50 worth of goods to China, then the remaining $50 flows into the People's Bank of China as foreign exchange reserves. After China obtains these dollars, in order to preserve and increase their value, they may purchase US stocks and bonds. Thus, this $50 flows back to the US from the capital account. The US releases dollars into the world through trade deficits; this is how the dollar tide operates, and it's also how the US acquires the world by massively issuing dollars. But the problem arises: if the US continues to disperse money, the holes in the accounts will keep getting bigger, and the dollar hegemony will eventually face bankruptcy, leading to a global run on the dollar and its sell-off.
In the end of this play, either the dollar will implode by itself, or the whole world will be pushed to the limit and switch to a new currency. There is only one viable path. What do you think?