Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates this year? How will it affect the crypto world?

Regarding The Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cuts, there are two situations.
(1) Trump's tariffs have driven prices very high, and inflation remains high and has rebounded.
(2) Inflation does not rebound and slowly declines.
In the first scenario, The Federal Reserve (FED) may cut interest rates 0-2 times in 2025.
In 2026, there may be two interest rate cuts.
If so, the price increase of BTC and altcoins may be limited.
BTC benefits from the U.S. strategic reserves, with a 30% chance: reaching $200,000 by 2026.
But altcoins are relatively difficult and won't rise significantly.
In the second scenario, The Federal Reserve (FED) may cut interest rates 3-4 times in 2025.
Next year in 2026, there might be 5-6 interest rate cuts.
If so, BTC reaching 200,000 dollars by 2026 is very promising,
Shitcoins also have the hope of a big rise.
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