Glassnode: Is the Metaverse doomed? On-chain data tells you the answer.

Source: Glassnode; Compiled by Wuzhu, Golden Finance

This week, we introduced another exploration for CBD use cases - analyzing metaverse tokens. Despite the price drop and the fading hype, on-chain data indicates that major investors remain active, steadily accumulating and reducing their cost basis.

Does this signal a long-term bet on the revival of the metaverse? Let's first review how to analyze and interpret CBD data, and then apply that knowledge to the latest trends in the metaverse.

Understanding the Cost Base Distribution

Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) tracks the position of the token supply based on the average cost basis of holders. By analyzing the changes in supply distribution, we can identify investor behavior - whether they are accumulating, selling, or reallocating their holdings.

How to interpret the CBD heat map:

• Color Intensity (Supply Distribution)

Warm colors (red/yellow) indicate a high concentration of supply within a given price range, while cool colors (blue/green) indicate a lower supply level.

• Vertical Axis (Cost Basis)

Each horizontal slice represents the price range of the last movement of a portion of the supply, showing how holders adjust their cost basis over time.

Tracking these changes helps us identify potential market turning points, where accumulation or distribution trends may signal future price movements.

Metaverse Tokens: What the Cost Basis Distribution Data Reveals

In this analysis, we focus on metaverse tokens — The Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA), and Axie Infinity (AXS) — which were among the most prominent assets during the metaverse boom in 2021. Although the hype around virtual worlds has subsided, our focus shifts from user activity to examining investor behavior using cost basis distribution (CBD) data.

We do not evaluate adoption metrics or in-game activities, but analyze how token holders adjust their positions over time. Are they selling, holding steady, or accumulating at lower prices? By tracking supply changes at different price levels, we can gain insights into how investor sentiment evolves during the post-hype phase, and whether accumulation trends imply long-term confidence in these projects.

The Sandbox (SAND): Steady accumulation in a bear market

Despite price fluctuations, on-chain data indicates that accumulation is still ongoing. Holders with strong conviction are steadily increasing their positions, bolstering their confidence in the project's long-term potential.

Decentraland (MANA): Buy on dips

The supply concentration has significantly increased to around $0.60, reflecting an increase in buying activity after the price drop. This indicates that investors view the price drop as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of further decline.

Axie Infinity (AXS): Long-term confidence remains strong.

Despite the continued downward trend, on-chain data shows that a large number of positions are gradually increasing. This pattern indicates that some investors remain confident about the future of Axie Infinity.

Will the Metaverse Revive?

Speculative hype around the metaverse may have faded, but on-chain activity suggests otherwise. The continued accumulation of major metaverse tokens indicates that many investors see these projects as undervalued opportunities rather than failures.

Does this lay the foundation for a future recovery? Although the price trend remains uncertain, data shows that the confidence of major market participants is still strong—they are positioning themselves accordingly.