The Telegram mini-game ecosystem is facing severe challenges, with data declining across the board.

Recently, the user data for Telegram bots and Miniapps has shown a significant downward trend. Once the focus of the blockchain field due to explosive growth driven by Clicker games, Telegram Miniapp is now experiencing a crisis of ecological imbalance.

Over-reliance on the support strategies of Clicker games may lead to a short-term surge in users, but it also buries hidden risks. As the novelty for users fades, issues of homogenization and lack of depth in the games gradually become apparent, causing the entire ecosystem to suffer backlash.

In the current situation, it is particularly important to deeply reflect on strategic mistakes and seek new directions for development.

1. Significant Decline in Monthly Active Users

Monitoring data for 820 Telegram projects shows that the cumulative monthly active users (MAU) reached 879,922,503 in October. However, this figure decreased by 295,971,112 over the course of a month, representing a drop of 33%.

It is particularly noteworthy that large projects with a user base exceeding 5 million are showing an accelerated downward trend, which has a profound impact on the overall decline in MAU. This indicates that even leading projects struggle to withstand the impact of user loss, reflecting deep-seated issues within the ecosystem.

2. Structural Changes in Project Price Fluctuations

Among the 820 monitored projects, in October, 249 projects saw an increase, while 491 projects experienced a decline. Leading projects such as Hamster, Dogs, and Catizen showed the most significant drops, reflecting a weakening of their growth momentum and a waning novelty for users.

Although some emerging projects show positive growth, their number and magnitude are far from enough to compensate for the decline of older projects. Among projects with a user base of less than one million, the number of declining projects still exceeds that of rising projects, highlighting the ecosystem's lack of new vitality.

3. Project Scale Migration and User Demand Downgrade

By analyzing the project categorized by MAU levels, the following trends were discovered:

1. High-value projects flowing to lower tiers: Projects with over 50 million MAU decreased from 2 to 1, and projects with 10 million to 50 million MAU decreased from 18 to 15.

2. The level of mid-tier projects has significantly declined: Although the number of projects with 2 million to 5 million MAUs has increased, it is mainly due to the downgrade of high-tier projects.

3. The number of small projects has increased significantly: projects with 100,000-500,000 MAU have risen from 142 to 181, and projects with under 20,000 MAU have increased from 84 to 161, reflecting an overall decline in projects rather than ecological prosperity.

These data reveal a comprehensive decline trend in the scale of the TON ecosystem projects, reflecting issues such as insufficient user engagement and a lack of innovative driving force.

4. Challenges and Highlights of the OpenLeague Project

The OpenLeague project has also failed to avoid the downward trend of users, and in some aspects, the decline is even more severe. The internal quality of the project is uneven, with a mix of good and bad.

However, individual projects like "AKEDO Game" and "RentTycoon" have performed well, bringing some hope to the ecosystem.

5. Project User Dynamic Analysis

By comparing the changes in the projects from a week 30 days ago to the most recent week, we can categorize the projects into the following types:

• Continuous growth projects: User growth is observed in both periods, which is worth paying attention to.
• Potential projects: Projects that have declined in the early stage but have shown significant growth recently may have rebound opportunities.
• Risk items: Both periods show a decline in users, and their viability needs to be assessed.
• Projects to be wary of: those that have seen initial growth but have recently experienced a significant decline, which may fall into a situation of continuous user loss.

At the same time, we have also discovered some projects that are suspected of inflating numbers, where the user changes lack genuine growth.

6. Summary

The main challenges faced by Telegram mini-program applications are focused on commercialization and content.

Commercialization:

• The current model mainly relies on traffic monetization, but there is insufficient attractiveness for new traffic.
• The large number of tokens generated by the game lack application scenarios, leading to a rapid decline of the project.

Content aspect:

• Most top games lack playability, leading users to form inherent stereotypes.
• It is necessary to develop truly engaging games to rebuild user trust.

In the future, the Telegram ecosystem urgently needs new content ideas and monetization models to rekindle user interest and lead the gaming sector into a more prosperous development stage.