💎Wind God Talks Trading— #XAU  2025.09.19

Intraday Analysis
1️⃣ Structural Interpretation
The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the weakening of the dollar are the main upward drivers, but Powell's remarks and the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields have put pressure on gold prices in the short term. Overall: Slightly bullish but sensitive to macro factors. Short-term support is at 3644-3635, with resistance at 3691–3695. Additionally, 3700-3710. If the price holds at the support level and sees increased volume again, there is still a chance for a second upward surge; conversely, if the dollar continues to strengthen, the risk of a pullback becomes significant.

2️⃣ Fund Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics
Macroeconomic Perspective: Recently, the Fed has taken or is expected to take rate cuts (the market remains cautious about the next steps). The short-term fluctuations of the dollar and yields directly impact gold prices. On that day, media reported that the stabilization of the dollar had caused a slight retreat in gold prices.
ETF / Holdings: SPDR and other gold ETFs have experienced slight fluctuations in holdings (with some days showing net outflows), but overall physical demand and central bank purchases continue to support the medium to long term.

3️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy
Bullish outlook: If the price dips to around 3644-3635 and shows signs of a reversal, a long position can be entered, with a stop loss set at the break of the 3635 level. The target is set at 3691–3695. If the resistance zone is broken, look for the previous high.

Short selling strategy: If the price rises near 3691–3695 and a short-term top signal is observed, you can enter a short position. Set the stop-loss at 3695 if the body breaks, with a target around 3640.

4️⃣ Risk Warning
Gold is highly dependent on macro data (US Treasury yields, US dollar, Fed statements) and geopolitical factors, with short-term direction easily altered by data/news fluctuations. Control your position and pay attention to the data schedule.


[For reference only, not as investment advice]