Recently, the U.S. government shutdown has become the focus of the global financial markets, triggering a series of unexpected market reactions. This event, which should have plunged the U.S. economy into distress, has instead become a catalyst for global market sentiment.

U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, gold prices have broken historical records, and even Hong Kong stocks have benefited significantly, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index both showing notable increases. Behind this unusual phenomenon is the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve may adopt a loose monetary policy.

Investors generally believe that a government shutdown will increase economic uncertainty, thereby forcing the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates. The market expects the probability of a rate cut in October to reach 100%, with a 99% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut. Even the expectation for a rate cut in December is as high as 88%.

However, is this optimism sufficiently justified? Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has previously emphasized the need for caution regarding interest rate cuts and that they should not be rushed. The market's heightened expectations are likely an overinterpretation of the impact of a government shutdown.

It is worth noting that the decision to cut interest rates is not an easy one. The ADP employment data for September in the United States showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, and economic indicators are exhibiting instability. Coupled with the chain reaction brought about by the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve will face more challenges in formulating monetary policy.

Therefore, the current positive performance of the market may only be a temporary phenomenon brought about by short-term favorable factors, and it should not be regarded as a signal that the Federal Reserve is about to enter a large-scale rate-cutting cycle.

For ordinary investors, it is wiser to remain calm and observe at this time rather than follow the fluctuations of market sentiment. Blind optimism can bring risks, and maintaining a moderate caution is essential to sustain stability amid market volatility. Investing should not be a simple bet, but rather requires rational analysis and long-term vision. In this uncertain market environment, keeping a clear mind is more important than chasing short-term gains.