The latest released minutes from the Fed's September meeting revealed serious divisions within the decision-making body regarding the future direction of monetary policy. Although most officials tend to believe that further easing of policy "may be appropriate" within the year, seven officials expressed disagreement with continuing to lower rates. Notably, only board member Stephen Miran advocated for a one-time significant rate cut of 50 basis points and voted against it.

The meeting minutes also pointed out that due to the government shutdown, key economic data is missing, and officials have had to rely on private sector data and corporate feedback to assess the economic situation. This unconventional source of information may increase uncertainty in decision-making.

Nonetheless, a slight majority of officials still expect at least two more rate cuts this year. The market generally anticipates a 25 basis point cut in both October and December. However, Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the need to maintain a cautious balance between the risks on the employment market and inflationary pressures in the current economic environment.

This meeting minutes clearly reflect the Fed's policy dilemma in the face of a complex economic situation. On one hand, signs of slowing economic growth call for a more accommodative monetary policy; on the other hand, inflationary pressures and the resilience of the labor market make some officials cautious about further rate cuts. This internal division may increase uncertainty about the future direction of monetary policy and poses challenges for market participants in interpreting the Fed's intentions.