ETH Evening Market Analysis on October 10

1. Trend Analysis

· Short-term weakening signals are clear: the price has fallen below all short-term EMAs (EMA5, EMA10, EMA30)
· Key support lost: consecutively fell below important supports of 4,425 (EMA5), 4,418 (EMA10), 4,399 (EMA30)
· The long-term trend is still in place: prices are still well above EMA72(4, 161) and EMA180(3, 592), and the long-term bullish pattern remains intact.

2. MACD Indicator Analysis

· The momentum has明显衰减:
· The MACD value of 12.19 has significantly decreased compared to the previous period.
· DIFF(38.49) and the difference with DEA is narrowing, indicating a weakening of upward momentum.
· Potential Death Cross Risk: If DIFF continues to decline, a death cross signal may form.

3. Volume Analysis

· Relatively healthy: The current trading volume of 9.829 billion is close to the 5-day 10.976 billion and 10-day 10.236 billion average.
· Selling pressure is controllable: there has been no abnormal increase in volume during the decline, which is considered normal profit-taking.
· Positive signal: Trading volume is reasonably matched, and there has been no panic selling.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Immediate Resistance: 4,391.80 (24-hour high)
· Strong resistance 1: 4,418-4,425 (EMA10-EMA5 area)
· Strong resistance 2: 4,716.30 (previous high)
· Support level:
· Key support: 4,161.96 (EMA72)
· Strong support 1: 4,262.40 (24-hour low)
· Strong support 2: 3,592.22 (EMA180)

Trend prediction

Most likely scenario (60% probability): Continue to pull back and test the EMA72 support.

1. Reason: Break below multiple EMA support + MACD momentum weakening
2. Callback Target:
· First target: 4,262-4,280 (testing the 24-hour low point area)
· Second target: 4,161.96 (EMA72 strong support)
3. Nature Assessment: As long as it stays above 4,161, it is still a healthy technical correction.

Possible scenario (30% probability): Rebound to the EMA resistance zone

1. Condition: Obtain support around 4,260 to see a technical rebound.
2. Rebound target: 4,418-4,425 (EMA10-EMA5 resistance zone)
3. Requirement: Need to increase trading volume.

Low probability scenario (10% probability): deep pullback

1. Trigger condition: Break below 4,161 EMA72 support
2. Callback target: Test support below 4,000
3. Low probability: Current technical indicators do not support a deep pullback.

Trading advice

For holders of long positions:

· It is recommended to reduce positions if the price rebounds to the resistance zone of 4,390-4,420.
· The stop-loss is set below 4,250
· Wait for a callback to the 4,260-4,280 support zone to consider a rebound.

For short sellers/observers:

· You can short with a light position at 4,380-4,400, with a stop loss above 4,430.
· Mainly waiting for a pullback to the 4,260-4,280 support area to place long positions.
· If it breaks below 4,260, short positions can be taken with a target of 4,180-4,160.

Risk control focus:

· Key Observation Points:
· Is the support at 4,262 effective?
· 4,161 EMA72 strong support defense situation
· Volume changes during rebounds
· Long Stop Loss: Below 4,250
· Short Stop Loss: Break through 4,430

Risk Warning

1. The breakdown of multiple EMA support indicates significant short-term adjustment pressure.
2. The MACD momentum decay requires time to repair.
3. The key support at 4,161 must not be broken, otherwise the depth of the adjustment will increase.
4. It is advisable to operate with a light position, build positions in batches, and implement strict stop-loss.

Summary: ETH is currently in a short-term adjustment phase, with technical indicators showing significant pullback pressure. Focus on the defense of the immediate support at 4,262 and the strong support at 4,161. It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and wait for a pullback to the support level before considering building long positions. Pay close attention to changes in trading volume and the offensive and defensive situations at key price levels.