ETH October 13 Market Analysis

1. Trend Analysis

· Short-term bearish pattern established: Prices have fallen below multiple important moving averages including EMA5, EMA10, and EMA30.
· Key support test: The current price of 4,135.95 precisely coincides with the EMA72 at 4,136.27, testing this lifeline.
· Moving average alignment deteriorates: EMA5 < EMA10 < EMA30, short-term moving averages show a bearish arrangement.
· The long-term trend remains: the price is still above EMA180(3,594), and the foundation of the long-term bull market has not been broken.

2. Price Position Analysis

· At a critical decision point: EMA72 is an important watershed for medium-term trends.
· Pullback from high: dropped from around 4,286 to the current position, a decline of about 3.5%

3. Volume Analysis

· Relative Health: The current trading volume of 12.844 billion is basically on par with the 5-day average of 13.089 billion, slightly higher than the 10-day average of 11.451 billion.
· No Panic Observed: During the decline, the trading volume did not show abnormal expansion, indicating an orderly adjustment.
· Positive signal: The trading volume is relatively reasonable, and there has been no panic selling.

4. Support and Resistance Analysis

· Resistance level:
· Strong Resistance 1: 4,201.55 (EMA10)
· Strong Resistance 2: 4,286.32 (EMA30)
· Support level:
· Key support: 4,136.27 (EMA72) ← Currently being tested
· Strong support 1: 4,098.55 (EMA5)
· Strong support 2: 4,032.75 (24-hour low)

Trend prediction

Most likely scenario (50% probability): Support rebound near EMA72

1. Reason: Healthy trading volume + EMA72 is an important technical support + Long-term trend is intact
2. Bounce target:
· First target: 4,201 (EMA10)
· Second Target: 4,286 (EMA30)
3. Key condition: Must hold the support at 4,136

Possible scenario (35% probability): Continue to explore downwards to find support.

1. Trigger condition: Break below EMA72 support at 4,136
2. Downward target:
· First target: 4,098 (EMA5)
· Second target: 4,032 (24-hour low)
3. Nature Judgment: As long as it does not fall below 4,000, it is still considered a normal correction.

Low probability scenario (15% probability): rapid reversal upwards

1. Condition: Major positive news or market sentiment improves.
2. Feature: A significant increase in volume with a strong bullish candle directly breaking through 4,200
3. Lower probability: The current technical aspect needs time to repair.

Trading suggestions

For long holders:

· Focus on 4,136 support; if it can hold, you can continue to hold.
· Set stop loss below 4,090 (below EMA5)
· A rebound to the 4,200-4,250 range can be considered for reducing positions.

For short sellers/observers:

· You can try going long with a small position near 4,136, with a stop loss below 4,090.
· If it falls below 4,090, you can short it in the short term, with a target of 4,030.
· Stop loss for short positions should be set when breaking 4,200 with increased volume.

Risk Control Focus:

· Key observation points:
· Is the 4,136 support effective?
· Changes in trading volume
· 4,200 resistance breakthrough situation
· Long Stop Loss: Below 4,090
· Short stop loss: Breakthrough 4,220

Risk Warning

1. The EMA72 support at 4,136 is the most important technical level currently, and its gain or loss will determine the short-term direction.
2. The bearish alignment of the moving averages requires time to repair, and it is difficult to expect strong performance in the short term.
3. The overall market environment will affect the independent performance of ETH.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position, strictly set stop-loss, and control risks.

Summary: ETH is currently at a critical technical node, testing the EMA72 mid-term lifeline. The short-term trend hinges on this move; if it can hold, a technical rebound is expected, but if it fails to hold, it may further test the 4,030 support. It is advised to cautiously go long near the support level, strictly control risks, and closely monitor the offensive and defensive situation of key price levels.