Bitcoin's upward momentum shows signs of fatigue: Weakness in open interest and CPI data are suppressing market expectations

Recently, Bitcoin's rally has encountered significant resistance. Although there were signs of a reversal at the start of this week, key derivatives indicators suggest that market sentiment has not warmed concurrently.

During this period, the total open interest did not increase significantly as the price rose, funding rates remained mostly neutral, and CME futures trading volume was also low. This phenomenon reflects traders' limited interest in adding leverage positions, with little large-scale liquidity inflow or enthusiasm for opening new positions.

The current market structure shows that buyers are mainly concentrated in the $97,500 to $104,000 range, with $100,000 serving as an important psychological support level. However, some analysts warn that psychological support is not strong support, and there is a risk of potential breakdown.

It is worth noting that the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States will be released this Friday. This inflation indicator typically has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. Values higher than expectations could intensify Bitcoin's downward pressure.

Meanwhile, analysts have differing views on the market’s future trend. Dr. Profit predicts that Bitcoin will soon fall below $101,000, suggesting that bullish expectations may be disappointed; whereas veteran trader Bob Loukas points out that BTC is at a critical point deep within its cycle, with complacency hiding risks.

At the same time, CryptoAmsterdam believes BTC has recovered from the lower end of its range, and in the medium term, it may maintain this level as support. Even if broken, the decline might only trigger limited pullbacks. Conversely, Titan from Crypto is watching the monthly LMACD crossover (not yet confirmed), which could indicate that the market has entered a cyclical top or the beginning of a bear market phase.

Overall, the current Bitcoin market presents a situation where technical weakness is intertwined with macroeconomic data pressures. Derivatives indicators suggest insufficient upward momentum, and upcoming CPI data could act as a catalyst for short-term volatility.

The divergent views among analysts also reflect the market’s uncertainty about the future direction. Therefore, investors should closely monitor key support levels and macroeconomic data releases.

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