#BTC是否会突破12万 From the daily chart level, the BTC trend can be described as a textbook long positions pattern.

· Moving Average System: The current MA7, MA30, and MA60 show a perfect long positions arrangement, and the price remains consistently above the short-term moving averages, providing solid structural support for the upward movement.
· Key support and resistance: Multiple dips last week found strong support around $118,000 and quickly rebounded. This level has transformed from a resistance level into a solid support platform. Currently, the price is consolidating above this support, which is a typical "accumulation" pattern aimed at digesting prior profit-taking and building momentum for the next upward move.
II. Macroeconomic Tailwind: The Fed's "Dovish" Gift
The macro environment continues to provide fuel for risk assets.
· Expectations for interest rate cuts are rising: Recent U.S. economic data have shown signs of weakness, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in the spring of next year are becoming increasingly strong. Although the Fed's meeting this week may maintain the status quo, any "dovish" hints about an early rate cut will be interpreted by the market as a significant positive.
· Liquidity Shift: Expectations of interest rate cuts directly imply that market liquidity will become more accommodative in the future. This is a fundamental value support for assets like BTC, which are extremely sensitive to liquidity. Global capital is preemptively positioning itself, seeking quality safe havens amid the trend of US dollar depreciation, with BTC undoubtedly being one of the core choices.
3. On-chain data and capital flow: Institutions are still "buying, buying, buying"
The most hardcore logic comes from the inflow of real money.
· Continuous net inflow of ETFs: Since the approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, it has been the most powerful "booster" in this bull market. Data shows that despite prices being at a high level, the net inflow of ETFs has not diminished; rather, there are signs of acceleration recently. This clearly tells us that institutional buying is far from over; they are taking advantage of every consolidation or slight pullback to continue building positions. This strong buying power is the most direct force driving prices to break through previous highs.
In summary:
1. The technical structure is healthy, key support is effective, and there are conditions for a breakout in terms of formation.
2. The macro expectations are friendly, and the narrative of loose liquidity is brewing.
3. The capital level is solid, with institutions providing a continuous thrust through ETF purchases.
Therefore, I believe that as long as BTC can hold above the support at 118K, the probability of breaking upward and stabilizing at 120K this week is very high. Once the breakout is successful, the space above will be completely opened up.
Of course, the market always has uncertainties, and we need to pay close attention to the specific wording of the Federal Reserve meeting. But for now, the trend is our friend, and going with the flow is key.

#BTC是否会突破12万