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Options information for today:
Due to the impact of the U.S. government shutdown and liquidity tightening, the Treasury has concentrated cash into the Treasury General Account (TGA), with the balance rising to about $1 trillion, equivalent to nearly $700 billion in funds withdrawn from the market, tightening liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets. The price of Bitcoin briefly fell below $104,000 in early November, hitting a nearly one-month low, as market risk aversion increased. However, at the same time, the probability of a rate cut in December remains around 63%, and the next move by the Federal Reserve may become a key catalyst for the year-end market.
Last week, the BTC Options trading volume exceeded 12 billion USD, marking one of the peak ranges this year.
Today, the largest transaction by a major account involved a combination trade buying BTC-141125-100000-P and selling BTC-211125-98000-P, betting on a short-term decline, but expecting limited volatility or a price rebound in the medium to long term, totaling 100 BTC, with a premium income of 135,000 USD.
The widening gap between IV and RV, along with the resurgence of volatility premium, is a key window for positioning in the year-end market and capturing the opportunity of liquidity return.