Data Bombardment Week Arrives: How Will the US Resumed Data Impact the Crypto World?

The economic data backlog during the U.S. government shutdown is about to be released in a concentrated manner, forming a rare "data bomb week." Starting this Thursday, the Department of Labor and CFTC will sequentially release several weeks or even months of missing data, including initial jobless claims, PPI, import and export price indices, and institutional holdings reports. For the crypto world, this is not only a concentrated supplement of macro information but may also trigger an abnormal amplification of short-term fluctuations, a repricing of inflation expectations, and a reconstruction of leverage position transparency.

1. Data Reissue Panorama: From "Information Black Hole" to "Data Flood"

1. The "Delayed Truth" of Initial Jobless Claims Data

A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Labor has confirmed that due to the government shutdown combined with technical failures, the initial claims for unemployment benefits data for multiple weeks have not been released on time. Among them, the data for the week of October 18 was leaked in advance (232,000 people), but this time a "silent release" mode will be adopted, with no press release or official interpretation, and it will be directly uploaded to the official website database.

Market impact mechanism:

• Delayed reaction effect: The market will digest the labor market trends of the past few weeks all at once. If the data shows continued weakness in employment (such as more than 240,000 for four consecutive weeks), it may instantly ignite expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, stimulating interest rate-sensitive assets like BTC and ETH.

• Emotional shock: This method of "concentrated historical homework" can easily trigger abnormal fluctuations in algorithmic trading. After short-term funds on Wall Street adjust their positions, the crypto world usually requires 2-3 trading cycles to fully digest.

2. The intensive release of inflation data

The Ministry of Labor has clarified three key compensation payment times (Beijing time):

• November 25, 21:30: Reissue of September PPI (Producer Price Index)

• December 3rd, 21:30: Resending the import and export price index for September

Deep impact:

PPI and import and export prices are leading indicators of inflation. If the September data shows that inflationary pressure on the producer side remains high (PPI month-on-month >0.3%), it will directly impact the market's pricing for the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December. Currently, the CME indicates a rate cut probability of about 60%. If the data exceeds expectations and is strong, the probability may drop sharply to below 40%, putting short-term pressure on the crypto market.

3. CFTC Position Report Returns: Institutional Cards Finally Revealed

The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) will resume issuing two weekly position reports, and will continue to make up for them until normal progress is restored on January 23, 2026.

The significance to the crypto world:

• Transparency Reconstruction: In the past few weeks, the market has been in the "institutional position blind spot", making it difficult to determine whether hedge funds and asset management companies are going long or short on Bitcoin futures.

• Leverage Indicator: The CFTC report will disclose the net long/short ratio of non-commercial positions (speculative funds). If the net short position exceeds 35%, it indicates that institutions are betting on a decline, and retail investors should be wary of "being harvested by counterparties."

• Trading Opportunities: The report release often coincides with "data market conditions". After institutional positions are exposed, it may trigger follow-up or counter operations, allowing short-term traders to capture volatility.

II. The Triple Impact on the Crypto World: Volatility, Pricing, and Leverage

Impact 1: Short-term volatility has significantly increased

Logic: The data set's supplementary distribution = the market needs to "catch up" on macro trends it has missed in the past. If the initial jobless claims are extremely weak or extremely strong for a few weeks, it will trigger a "delayed but intense" emotional response.

Historical reference: In January 2023, the Labor Department revised and released non-farm employment data, and on that day, BTC experienced a volatility of 7.2%, far exceeding the usual trading day's 3.5%.

Response: Do not open new positions within 2 hours before and after data releases to avoid slippage and volatility traps. You can use options combinations (such as straddle strategies) to go long on volatility, rather than betting on direction.

Impact II: The macro direction may be repriced

Inflation indicators such as PPI directly affect the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts, rate decisions, and U.S. Treasury yields. The crypto market is extremely sensitive to expectations of interest rate cuts, especially large-cap coins like BTC and ETH.

Key threshold:

• PPI month-on-month ≥0.4%: Inflation pressure exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate cut in December may fall below 50%, BTC tests $92,000

• PPI month-on-month ≤ 0.2%: Inflation retreat confirmed, interest rate cut probability rises to over 70%, BTC challenges $98,000.

Time window: Within 24 hours after data release, the market will complete the expected repricing. If the deviation from the consensus expectation is greater than 0.15 percentage points, the volatility will extend for 48 hours.

Shock Three: Leverage Positions Require High Alertness (Special Reminder for Contract Traders)

After the CFTC report is restarted, the market can see the real positions of large institutions, which is both a blessing and a risk.

Potential scenarios:

• Institutional short exposure: If the net short position exceeds 40%, large funds may "squeeze" the market, first driving down to the stop-loss level, and then quickly pushing it back up.

• Retail investors are precisely harvested: After holding position data becomes transparent, market makers can specifically target losses, especially during low liquidity hours in the early morning.

Risk Control Recommendations:

• On CFTC report day (every Friday at 21:30), leverage is reduced to below 3 times.

• Avoid opening new positions within the first 30 minutes after the report is released, wait for the market to digest.

3. Investor Action Manual: Surviving and Profiting During Data Intensive Periods

1. Short-term traders: Utilize volatility, do not bet on direction

Strategy: Buy straddle options before the big data day release.

• Buy BTC call options (strike price 97,000) and put options (strike price 93,000) at the same time.

• The cost of the options premium is controlled at 1.5% of the total position, and profits can be made as long as the fluctuation is >5%, whether it goes up or down.

• Applicable scenarios: Before the release of the PPI on November 25 and the import and export price index on December 3.

2. Spot holders: Keep a steady pace and increase positions in batches.

Rules:

• Data is favorable (weak inflation, high unemployment): Increase position by 10% at BTC 94,000 and ETH 3,050.

• Data is bearish (strong inflation, low unemployment): do not operate, wait for it to drop to $88,000 and $2,900 to increase positions by 15%

• Neutral data: Stay put and avoid being shaken out by short-term fluctuations.

3. Contract traders: Data does not open positions daily, and positions have hard stop losses.

Discipline:

• November 25 and December 3, 21:00-23:00: Close all contracts to avoid data shocks.

• Hard stop-loss: On the data day, the stop-loss level is tightened by 30% compared to usual (e.g., if the usual stop-loss is 5%, set it to 3.5% on the data day)

• Position limit: The total weekly position does not exceed 30%.

4. Macroeconomic Observer: Create Personal Data Dashboard

Daily must-watch indicators (can be set in TradingView):

• Dollar Index DXY: A drop below 103 is seen as a rebound in risk appetite.

• 10-year TIPS real yield: A drop below 1.75% is seen as an improvement in liquidity

• CFTC Positions: Focus on the changes in net positions of "asset management institutions"

IV. Core Summary: The more data there is, the more transparent the market becomes, but the more it should not be disturbed.

In the next two weeks, the market will undergo a three-step variation of "data-intensive bombardment → extreme emotional fluctuations → expectation repricing." This presents an opportunity for professional traders, but a risk for retail investors.

Remember the three iron rules:

1. No all-in: During the weekly data release period, the maximum position should not exceed 50%.

2. Avoid chasing highs and selling lows: Wait 30 minutes after data release for the market to digest before making decisions.

3. Do not speculate on direction: Use options or grid trading to long volatility, rather than betting on one direction.

Final judgment: Data replenishment is a "delayed reaction" rather than a new event, and it will not change the long-term trend of the crypto market (halving cycle, ETF inflows, institutional adoption). The intensification of short-term volatility is a process of cleansing leverage and testing faith. As long as the rhythm is maintained and patience is exercised, the market will be healthier after the storm. #逆势上涨币种推荐 #美联储会议纪要将公布 #比特币行情观察 .

Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market trades 24 hours a day, with no limits on price fluctuations. Data releases may trigger significant volatility, so please strictly manage your positions and isolate risks, avoiding high-leverage operations within 2 hours before and after the data is announced. Historical volatility does not represent future performance; investment decisions should be made independently.