The 43-day government shutdown officially ended on November 18. This shutdown affected 1.25 million federal employees, resulting in about $16 billion in lost wages, and caused the consumer confidence index to fall to a three-year low of 50.4.

Now that the government has reopened, liquidity injection has become key.

Here is a concept to popularize - TGA (Treasury General Account), which is the main operating account of the U.S. Department of the Treasury at the Federal Reserve. All government income and expenditures go through this account. When the TGA increases, it indicates that funds are flowing from the market to the government, reducing market liquidity; conversely, when the TGA decreases, government spending injects funds into the market, increasing liquidity.

Data shows that during the 43-day period from October 1, 2025, to November 12, the TGA balance continued to accumulate, reaching a peak of $959 billion on November 14. This level is far higher than the cash position typically maintained by the Treasury, mainly due to limited spending during the government shutdown, coupled with ongoing debt issuance, resulting in a significant accumulation of cash in the Treasury accounts.

Currently, the TGA data does not show a significant fall. Based on the government's reopening date on November 13, 2025, and referring to historical experience, it is expected that in the first week, the government will first pay back wages to government employees, with about $16 billion flowing into the economy, which will have a relatively small impact. In other words, it will be difficult to have a large amount of liquidity entering before November 20.
In 1-2 weeks, which means at the beginning of December, the TGA will operate normally, daily government spending will resume, seasonal tax revenue will return, and the TGA balance will start to fluctuate and release significantly. Only then will the market begin to feel a noticeable improvement in liquidity.