The US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) will be released at 21:30 tonight, and the market may see some volatility.

This situation is a bit特殊—because the US government has been shut down, there has been no complete employment data for 43 days. More troublesome is that this report may even lack the unemployment rate, and incomplete data can easily be overinterpreted.

First, let's look at the surface: In October, 50,000 new jobs were added, which is better than the 120,000 in August. But when we break down the details, something seems off—private sector employment decreased by 45,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023. Even more concerning is that the number of people continuously receiving unemployment benefits has surged to 1.957 million, and this rate of increase is quite alarming.

In addition to external factors: the situation between Russia and Ukraine has become tense again. Historically, every time geopolitical risks increase, the safe-haven property of crypto assets is strengthened. On the other hand, the US Core PCE Inflation Index is still hovering at a high level, indicating that inflationary pressures have not dissipated.

Several factors are coming together, and tonight's volatility is likely to be significant.