Recently saw the Fed's minutes from the October meeting, to be honest, it was quite interesting—there was a real uproar internally.

First, the conclusion: they eventually lowered interest rates, but the process can be described as "soul tearing." The decision-making body is basically divided into three factions:

**Radicals** get straight to the point: employment data is already starting to weaken. Are we waiting for a hard landing of the economy without taking action now? Delaying action may lead to even greater costs.

The **conservative** stance is also very firm: inflation has not stayed below the 2% target for years, and any relaxation now would mean throwing away previous efforts. Once the market thinks we have "backed down," inflation expectations will rise again, making it twice as difficult to regain control later.

The **centrists** are the most pragmatic: they can lower it, but it must be done carefully, so as not to let the outside world misinterpret it as a complete policy shift.

The degree of internal disagreement is rare in the history of the Fed. However, if you think about it carefully, you'll find that both sides have reasonable concerns—one side is worried about the pressure of economic growth, while the other side is concerned about stubborn inflation. It's like walking a tightrope; a slight shift in either direction could lead to a fall.

**What about the crypto market?**

A rate cut is inherently favorable in the short term, as it improves liquidity expectations and increases the preference for risk assets. However, the problem is that there is a significant "hesitation" conveyed behind this rate cut. If subsequent economic data continues to disappoint, the pace of rate cuts may accelerate; but if inflation rebounds, the policy could come to a sudden halt at any time.

So at this stage, market volatility is definitely going to increase. For us, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, nor should we rush blindly. The key is to keep a close watch on two data points: **non-farm payrolls** and **CPI**. One determines the pace of interest rate cuts, and the other determines the policy bottom line. When the data conflicts, that is when the market is most exciting.

Should I just lie flat or buy the dip now? My view is: **Don't rush to go all in, but also don't stay completely out of the market**. Build your position in batches and keep enough bullets to deal with volatility, which is much safer than going all in.