#BitcoinPriceWatch

BTC under $100k dip or danger? My strategy and outlook
Bitcoin slipping below $100,000 is a reminder that volatility is the price of admission, not a broken thesis.
For me, this looks like a staged buying opportunity as long as the broader weekly structure holds. I’m approaching it with patience, discipline, and a plan that respects risk first.

My framework is simple:
I run a 3–12 month core swing/position with tactical trades inside ranges. Around 70% of my allocation is long-term conviction, while 30% is reserved for flexible adds and trims. I keep risk tight no more than 1–2% portfolio risk per trade and I never average down blindly. If the market invalidates my levels with heavy volume, I step aside and wait for structure to rebuild.

In terms of levels, I’m watching 95–97k as an early sign of strength if reclaimed, 90–92k as the first meaningful dip zone, and 84–88k if we see a deeper liquidity sweep. On the upside, 105–110k is the first real supply pocket from the breakdown, with 120–125k as the next magnet if momentum returns. The weekly trend remains healthy while higher lows hold, and I keep an eye on the 200-day moving average as a macro sanity check.
Catalysts matter here. Spot ETF flows versus exchange balances will tell us if structural demand is absorbing profit-taking. Macro conditions real yields, the Fed’s path, and USD strength will dictate risk appetite across the board.
On-chain, I’m watching long-term holder behavior and whether SOPR shows healthy profit distribution. A reset in funding and open interest after liquidations would help rebuild a cleaner base.
I’m also mindful of miner dynamics and any regulatory headlines around ETFs, stablecoins, or exchanges that could swing sentiment.

My strategy at these prices is to keep DCA running on a weekly or biweekly cadence and let the market come to me.
Tactically, I’ll scale bids between 92–96k with measured sizing, get more interested if 88–92k prints with capitulation wicks and a funding reset, and only add momentum exposure on a clean reclaim and hold above 100k with rising spot volume.
I’ll trim into 108–112k if momentum stalls, and again into the 120k area, always ready to rebuy on constructive retests. If we lose the prior higher-low cluster on a weekly close with expanding volume, I’ll reduce risk and wait for confirmation before re-engaging.
Risk management is the edge. I avoid over-leverage, place pre-set stops and OCOs, and stick to one thesis at a time. If the plan is invalidated, I don’t argue I preserve capital and move on. Blending long-term conviction with short-term discipline helps me stay objective when the market gets loud.
My base case for the next one to two quarters is a ranging and re-accumulation environment between roughly 90k and 110k while the market digests prior gains and ETF flows stabilize. A strong weekly close and hold above 110–112k could open a path toward 120–140k.
The bear risk is a decisive weekly break below the higher-low cluster, which could send us to the mid–high 80ks; I’d be a cautious buyer there with wider stops and smaller size.

Bottom line:
pullbacks in secular uptrends are where long-term edge is built if you respect risk.
Have your levels, size sanely, keep emotions out of entries, and let structure lead the way.
Not financial advice do your own research and trade your plan.
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