#美国非农就业数据表现优于预期 has dropped so sharply in the past couple of days that it caught everyone off guard. Everyone’s blaming the Fed for being “too hawkish.” But to be honest, the real trigger might not be in the US at all—things are actually getting even crazier over in Japan.

You might not have noticed, but Japan just injected 21.3 trillion yen into stimulus. Normally, that should excite the markets. So what happened? Their government bond yields exploded: the 20-year yield is approaching 2.8%, and the 40-year yield briefly soared above 3.7%. Keep in mind, Japan has been the “zero interest rate king” for over a decade—this kind of spike is totally abnormal.

Here’s the question—why does a surge in Japanese government bond yields drag Bitcoin down with it?

The answer lies in an old game: the yen carry trade. For years, global investors loved this play—borrowing yen at super low rates and funneling it into high-yield assets like US stocks and crypto. Now that expectations for Japanese rates have suddenly shot up, borrowing costs are spiking, and this money is being forced to retreat and flow back into Japan. When liquidity tightens, risk assets are always the first to get hit.

So this drop isn’t really a “crash,” but rather a chain reaction caused by global capital suddenly slamming on the brakes. Unless Japanese bond yields stabilize in the short term, it’ll be hard for the market to truly steady itself—volatility is likely to continue.

On the flip side, once the Japanese market sorts itself out, all that pent-up capital could rebound quickly. The most important thing right now is not to act impulsively: manage your positions, don’t rush to buy the dip, and wait for a clear sign of liquidity stabilization before making any moves.

Do you think this is just a short-term technical correction, or a sign of a bigger cycle turning point?