Recently, these global major events are quite interesting when viewed together—voices of dovishness from the Fed are getting louder, signs of negotiation are emerging in the Russia-Ukraine situation, and governments around the world are pouring money to stimulate the economy. How will these changes affect the crypto market? How should retail investors respond? Let's break it down one by one.

**Is the Fed really going to cut interest rates?**

Looking at the recent statements from Fed officials, it's clear that a rate cut is basically a done deal. People like Williams and Collins have been making public comments, and traders are now betting that the probability of a rate cut in December has already exceeded half. Why is this important? Because once the rate cut is implemented, there will be more money in the market, the cost of funds will decrease, and those high-risk, high-return assets will naturally become more attractive.

Cryptocurrencies belong to this category. In a low interest rate environment, investors are not satisfied with the meager returns from traditional investments, so they naturally look for opportunities elsewhere. Therefore, the expectation of interest rate cuts itself is a shot of adrenaline for the crypto market.

**With more money, asset valuations will be recalculated**

It's not just the United States; the whole world is implementing stimulus measures. Japan has directly approved an economic plan amounting to 21 trillion yen, while the unemployment rate among white-collar workers in the U.S. has reached a new high, putting significant pressure on the government. What is the result of large-scale monetary easing? Inflation expectations have risen.

Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are seen by many as a tool to combat inflation. Historical data shows that after each large-scale stimulus, Bitcoin often performs quite well. Of course, this doesn't mean it will definitely rise, but the logic on the demand side holds.

**Geopolitical risks cooling down?**

This change may have been underestimated. Putin recently stated that he is willing to negotiate, and Europe and the U.S. are also promoting a peace framework. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine really eases, global risk appetite will clearly rebound.

Think about it, during the war, everyone runs to safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds. Now that the situation has stabilized, isn't this money looking for new directions? The crypto market, as a high-growth track, will naturally get a share of it. Of course, this is a gradual process, but the trend is worth paying attention to.

**There are two hidden main lines**

One is that compliance is being promoted. Moody's upgraded Italy's rating, and the Japanese government is issuing bonds for fundraising. These seemingly unrelated news items actually reflect the repair of the global financial system. With the system stabilizing, the regulatory authorities' attitude towards encryption will also be more open, and opportunities in the compliance track will emerge.

Another is technological innovation. The latest PMI data from S&P shows that the service industry is recovering, and the economic structure is transforming. DeFi and RWA (real-world assets on-chain) may find their breakout points in this round of economic recovery.

**What should retail investors do? Three directions**

After talking so much about the macro aspects, how do we operate specifically?

First, let's talk about the position structure. Mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are essential; they serve as the foundation to withstand volatility. If you want to take a chance, you can take a small position to explore projects related to compliant public chains and RWA concepts, but never go all-in.

Secondly, seizing the opportunity is crucial. The Fed's interest rate meeting in December and the subsequent progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations are key milestones. If the market pulls back due to uncertainty, it could be a good opportunity to build positions in batches.

Last but not least - don't use leverage. Although the direction of this round of macro changes looks good, there will definitely be fluctuations in between. Set your take profit and stop loss levels, and keep your position flexible; it's better than anything else.

The current moment is quite delicate, with changes occurring in policy, funding, and sentiment. What retail investors need to do is not to gamble on size, but to follow the trend, speak with data, and find opportunities in the changing situation.