The recent trends of BTC and ETH have cooled off along with the global markets. Stocks are down, crypto is down, gold is down, commodities are still down—this kind of "quadruple drop" is pretty rare. I did some research and found a few reasons for it.

First, let's talk about the Fed. At the end of October, the market thought a rate cut in December was a sure thing, with the probability above 90%. Now, it's been slashed to just over 40%. Several Fed officials have come out saying there's no rush to cut in December, and there might not be any moves in the first half of next year. In the usual script, Trump would have jumped out to criticize Powell by now, but this time he's unusually quiet—which is pretty suspicious.

Then there's a black swan event from Japan. The market is worried that the Japanese government might roll out massive fiscal stimulus, and their 10-year government bond yields suddenly spiked. If this gets out of control, global liquidity will take a hit.

On top of that, the debate over the AI bubble is heating up, and there's internal strife on Wall Street. Nvidia reports earnings tomorrow and the market is already tense, so anxiety is even higher.

There's an interesting theory: Trump might be playing the long game. The midterm elections are coming up, and he needs a solid bull run in the US stock market next year to win votes. So, let the market correct itself now, take a dip at the end of the year, and leave room for a rally next year. The Fed cooperates by saving rate cut bullets for next year to fuel the bull market.

If this logic holds, don't expect any big rallies in the A-shares market by year-end either. It's likely to drift in the 3900 to 4100 range. After all, it's climbed from just over 3300 at the start of the year to over 3900 now—a 600-point gain is decent enough. A new round of rally? Probably have to wait until next year.

But based on trends, the probability of a market rebound tomorrow is pretty high. The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped three days in a row, and there hasn't been a four-day losing streak since May. Whether from the perspective of a slow bull market or market stabilization, there should be a rebound tomorrow.