#FedRateCutPrediction

Final Fed Decision of 2025: Will the Rate Be Cut to 3.75%? Data Analysis:

Markets will be focused on December 10, 2025, at 22:00 MSK. The Federal Reserve will announce the results of its last rate meeting of the year. Current forecasts, based on aggregated data, indicate a high probability that the easing cycle will continue: the projected rate is 3.75% versus the previous value of 4.0%.

If the forecast comes true, this would mean a 25 basis point cut, continuing the trend shown in the chart (decline from 4.5%).

Context and Political Background: This decision is being made under unique circumstances. Figures like Kevin Hassett (potential Fed Chair candidate) have publicly stated there is “full room” for significant rate cuts, hinting at possible more aggressive moves in the future. This creates expectations that go beyond the current consensus forecast.

Key Impact on the Crypto Market (Bitcoin):
According to the attached analytical data, the market reaction may be counterintuitive:

· If the forecast is confirmed (Actual = Forecast) the historical model indicates a 60% probability of BTC price decline in the first 5 minutes, with an average move of about -0.37%. This could be a classic “sell the news” reaction after a run-up ahead of the event.
· A scenario of more aggressive easing (Actual < Forecast) is traditionally seen as a more bullish factor for risk assets in the medium term, as it reduces the cost of the dollar and the appeal of bonds.

Strategic Considerations for Traders:

1. Short-term Volatility (5-15 min after the news): Be prepared for high volatility. The base scenario (cut to 3.75%) could trigger a short-term BTC sell-off, as statistics suggest. It makes sense to assess liquidity levels and stop-orders.
2. Medium-term Trend: Focus will shift to the tone of the Fed statement and the (“dot plot”) forecasts for 2026. Any hints of an accelerated rate-cutting cycle will become a fundamental reason for the crypto and stock markets to rise in the coming weeks.
3. Risk Management: Entering new positions right before the release carries high risk. A conservative strategy is to wait for the initial reaction to form and test key support/resistance levels.

Bottom Line: The decision is an important tactical benchmark. The 3.75% forecast is already largely priced in, so the real driver will be hints about future policy. For crypto investors, this could be a moment of short-term correction followed by an opportunity to strengthen the uptrend if the Fed signals a “dovish” stance.

⚠️ Attention, this post is not financial advice. Always do your own research DYOR